Bankinter | The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published its monthly report. Weakness in both supply and demand. It believes that the crude oil market is experiencing the biggest supply shock in its history due to the war in Iran. This has a direct impact on prices, demand, inventories and inflation. Specifically, it estimates that crude oil demand in 2026 will fall by 80,000 barrels per day on an annual average, representing a downward revision from 730,000 barrels per day in the previous report. The worst will be in Q2 2026, with a drop of 1.5 million barrels per day (1.5% of global demand). As for supply, it estimates a drop of 10.1 million barrels per day, down to 97 million barrels per day, which will mainly affect OPEC.
Bankinter analysis team’sview: The IEA is very emphatic in its statements and considers this to be the biggest oil shock to date. Only the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could turn the situation around. The reality is that this war has a direct impact in terms of supply, but also on demand as it affects economic growth and inflation.
Our central scenario envisages an imminent end to the war, but it will leave a scenario of reduced supply, affected by attacks on infrastructure in the Gulf. We therefore expect high oil prices, albeit somewhat lower than current levels ($95/barrel). We estimate that Brent crude will close the year at $85 and 2027 at $80.
