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Carbon emissions

World economy 5th February 2022

There’s A Massive Bubble In The Price Of Carbon – And Yet It Won’t Bring Down Emissions Any Faster

Steffen Böhm (The Conversation) | Carbon trading was supposed to encourage companies to reduce their emissions. Yet for many years, the carbon price was trading well below €20 (£17) per tonne on the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), which is by far the most established market for trading carbon in the world. Most agreed that this did not send any financial signals to carbon-intensive industries to invest in green technologies….

Christine Lagarde IMF director

European economy 3rd February 2022

ECB: The Eurozone Is Not The US And The Output Gap Is Still Closing

Annalisa Piazza (MFS IM) | Despite no changes in the policy stance, the tone of the press conference was clearly more hawkish than anticipated. Lagarde noted that risks around inflation are skewed to the upside, especially in the short-term and the March projections on inflation will set the stage for future policy moves. Recent inflation developments are a reason of concern across the Governing Council as second round effects from…

mario draghi italy

European economy 31st January 2022

The Best-Case Scenario For Italy In The Next 12 Months

Annalisa Piazza (MFS IM) | The outcome of the Italian Presidential election (Mattarella re-elected and Draghi remaining PM) is the best-case scenario for Italy in the next 12 months. As such, BTPs should benefit from the expected stability and the integrity of the two major political figures. In the short term, we see chances of a modest tightening in spreads vs Bund. We remain relatively optimistic on Italy’s recovery story…

ECB meetings

World economy 11th December 2021

What To Expect From Central Banks In 2022?

Mark Holman (Vontobel AM) | The Fed’s QE programme of $80bn in Treasuries and $40bn of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) purchases per month is already being tapered with $10bn less in Treasuries and $5bn less in MBS as each month passes. In our opinion the Fed should have already finished tapering by now, but they have only just begun and at a very slow pace, suggesting it will take seven further policy meetings to complete.

ECB PPEP

European economy 28th October 2021

BCE | Policy Was Left Unchanged At Today’s Meeting

Allen Goves (MFS Investment Management) | Policy was left unchanged at today’s meeting, as widely expected, yet despite rising inflation. This is because of the ECB’s stress that the current rise in inflation is likely to be transitory. Growth is still considered strong but is moderating and risks are broadly balanced. This meeting was perhaps characterized by its emphasis on inflation drivers. Importantly, the ECB continues to stress that many…

investment banks

World economy 24th October 2021

Stock Market: Many Companies Are Choosing Not To Be Listed

Karl Schmedders & Patrick Reinmoeller via The Conversation| Stock markets reached all-time highs in 2021, bringing huge value to the companies riding the wave, even when you allow for the dip in recent weeks. We are also in the midst of a boom year for flotations, with many boards taking advantage of investor enthusiasm for shares. Yet companies have been delisting from the stock market in even larger numbers, and,…

ImpliedFedFundsTargetRate

World economy 27th September 2021

Fed Signals Faster Tapering In 2023 But Under-Delivers On Next Year’s Dot Plot

Simon Harvey (Monex Europe) | While every sell-side analyst didn’t expect the FOMC dot plot to signal a rate hike in 2022, markets had other thoughts. While two members shifted their expectations to move the median dot plot to signal rates at 0.3% in 2022, this under-delivered in the eyes of rates markets. The price of eurodollar 2022 futures rose, in turn lowering the expected interest rate, while risk was…

ECB PPEP

European economy 14th September 2021

Will Lagarde Dare To Move In Earnest?

JP Marín-Arrese | All was quiet on the ECB front for too long. Suddenly, last week it announced its intention to scale down the emergency asset-buying programme starting next month. While falling short of the tapering heralded weeks ago by Jerome Powell, it represents indeed a shift in the dull do-nothing approach followed for months and years. Once embracing quantitative easing, much later than other central banks, it proved unable…

ECB's president Christine Lagarde

European economy 11th September 2021

ECB ‘recalibrates’ PEPP for Q4 – December is now key for APP and TLTROs

Annalisa Piazza (MFS) | ECB “recalibrates policy”: Nothing else has changed. Indeed, the rest of the policy announcement was a carbon copy of what we heard back in July. Forward guidance on both rates and QE was confirmed, along with the re-investment programmes. The slower pace of PEPP had been widely flagged by ECB officials over the past few weeks so the announcement was hardly a surprise. That said, the…

climatecrisis

Relevant News Item 1st August 2021

Next Big Financial Crisis Could Be Triggered By Climate Change – Central Banks Can Prevent It

Garth Heutel, Givi Melkadze & Stefano Carattini via The Conversation | In 2008, as big banks began failing across Wall Street and the housing and stock markets crashed, the nation saw how crucial financial regulation is for economic stability – and how quickly the consequences can cascade through the economy when regulators are asleep at the wheel. Today, there’s another looming economic risk: climate change. Once again, how much it harms economies will depend a lot on how financial regulators and central banks react.