Many important assets have been trapped in broad trading ranges in recent years despite substantial political upheaval Some examples are the US Treasury 10-year yield which moved between 1.5-2.5% for 3 years or the German Bund 10-year yield between 0-1% for 3 year. According to BoAML, “this inability of yields, the US dollar & volatility to break out reflects the inability of the economic cycle to generate strong growth & inflation.”
The reflation trade that boosted a rally in global stockmarkets after Donald Trump’s victory has been put to the test in recent weeks with the inflation data failing to deliver the sought-after hard facts. However, commodities as an asset class have for some time been somewhat isolated from the reflation debate
Not really. The Fed hid it and forgot where it put it! They has raised rates three more times since. Inflation hasn´t gone up, as the neofisherians would have us believe, but there´s been no recession either.
Tapering will come anyway, largely because of technical/ political constraints around QE. The ECB will still have to justify this with a macroeconomic narrative. This is what the ECB President has set out to do.However, experts at BoAML believe that what he said yesterday in Sintra central bankers summit is also consistent with a very slow exit.
Benjamin Cole | Japan has put together a string of five straight quarters of real growth, along with declining unemployment and minute amounts of inflation. Some have recently termed Abenomics “a big success.”
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | At the end of the day, we have zero or negative real long-term interest rates. Why? The most simple answer has to do with the relation between supply and demand. And everything leads us to think that there is more demand than supply in the fixed income markets.
Despite quantitative easing and 3 years of more synchronised developed economy growth, it is not clear that inflation has really got any traction. Technology, globalisation, unemployment and changes in working practices have all contributed to the lack of inflationary pressures and still do.
It takes a social democrat candidate to the French presidential election to push Banks 2017 P/Book to a 2-year high. As Carax-Alphavalue’s analysts report “whereas the banks hit a glass ceiling at 0.7x in the first half of 2016 (on 2016 figures), they were judged to become expensive at 0.85x and now trade at 0.9x”. The last leg is owed to the confidence surge around the euro, Europe and France since the democrat candidate emerged as a first- round winner.
J. L. M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | Stable inflation centred around levels of 2.0%…A scenario dominated by rising inflation is as complicated as one where deflation and potential low economic growth can create a vicious circle difficult to exit. Especially in a context of high indebtedness.
Benjamin Cole | The last time commercial property prices topped out was July of 2007. House prices appear to be rising still, though at a slower rate by various indices. On a per-square-foot basis, house prices in the U.S. have not budged since May of last year. That could be important, suggesting that houses now selling are larger, and the middle-class is dropping out of the market.