Carax Alphavalue | The recent OPEC deal was more than welcomed by the Norwegian oil company which has more than 60% of its production coming from the Continental Shelf. With little by way of refining compared to its integrated oil peers’, Statoil’s (Add, Norway) earnings are a near direct call on oil prices.
J.L.M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | Many argue that the conditions are not there for an uptick in inflation on a global scale. Well, that’s true: weak world growth, globalisation and a still negative output-gap in many developed countries (and emerging ones). But are we not being carried away to some extent by the disinflation inertia of the last few years? All eyes will be on the US Fed’s decision on interest rates and its forward guidance at this week’s meeting.
Most observers bet the Draghi would further extend its current asset purchase programme, shoring up confidence in the face of troubled times ahead. Some believed it might reduce the monthly volume, showing its intent to scale down little by little its massive balance sheet.
Two founding member countries of the European Union are really in a bad way: France and Italy. Both are threatening to turn this giant with feet of clay upside down, when it still doesn’t know how to deal with Brexit or the unknown elements which Trump has in store in “his” new world order.
Julius Baer Research | Bond yields in the US will likely consolidate thanks to the cap of yields in Europe, as the region is not the next eye of the storm, but the anchor for stability on global bond markets. In the short-and medium term, the ECB’s next move is more important than the Fed’s for bond investors globally.
Since 2008, pessimism has beaten optimism by a landslide in the human mind. It’s a fact which doesn’t need to be demonstrated, at least when we are talking about “how things are going with the economy.” But the Bond Vigilantes dare to challenge this unstoppable current of pessimism – and not only with regard to the economy – with an article based on the Internet’s contribution to global well-being.
BoAML | What if the ECB were to start tapering too soon? Based on the ECB’s estimates for the impact of QE this would keep growth below potential and inflation below 1% much further down the line. The probability of deflation would actually be higher than of inflation reaching 2%. But this is not even a stable equilibrium. With higher rates and lower growth, concerns on the sustainability of public and private debt would likely resurface.
The IMF estimates world debt at over $150 billion as can be seen in the graphic below. This represents approximately 250% of global GDP. And it’s easy to see that the bulk of it is private debt. It’s also clear that debt jumped massively when the crisis broke out in 2008 and has continued to grow since then. In 2008, debt was less than 150% of GDP.
The inflation rate for the Euro Area (flash estimate) was at +0.4% in September. It is the highest since October 2014. In August the inflation rate was at 0.2%. The core inflation rate was stable at 0.8%. The explanation has to be found in the oil price profile as said by Philippe Waechter, Chief Economist at Natixis AM.
The British economy has absorbed Brexit well and one of the reasons for this soft landing is the pound’s devaluation. But the pound’s weakness is already a problem for the Eurozone, particularly for Spain, and if this is prolonged it will be an even bigger one. Furthermore if Europe is stagnating, how Spain can be doing as well as the government says? Are we living on an island?