UBS | In recent notes (” Trouble down the line “, ” The outlook for OPEC production capacity “) we detailed the meaningful slow-down in activity we are seeing across the industry. This is being driven by a reassessment of portfolios, on grounds of affordability and in reaction to structural and cyclical deflationary dynamics. In this note we show the effect of this slowdown on investment levels. The results have been dramatic.
Goldman Sachs | While we expect that the combination of the fall in oil prices, the rise in the Euro and the weakening of equity prices will have relatively limited effects on growth, the effects on the near-term inflation outlook are likely to be much more substantial.
Julius Baer Research | Yields of German 2-year and 5-year government bonds are down to -0.55% and -0.36%, respectively, testament that the market is not expecting the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors to hammer out a global deal against falling interest rates.
C.Peel, T.Docal and C.Sweeting via Caixin | Collapsing oil prices have clearly caused financial disruptions. There will likely be bankruptcies and credit-crisis events among over-leveraged and high-cost producers.
The banks are in crisis yet again, despite the aid they have received and the fact that regulation has been strengthened. Nobody trusts the banks, and even less the suggested formats to bail them out in case of a crisis.
China’s problem continues to develop. And it can be resumed in three lines: for many years, the external sector, the exchange rate and its currency reserves have been essential for China. Between 1990-2014 approximately, China enforced a competitive exchange rate policy which allowed it to maintain a very low interest rate differential. As a consequence, its reserves saw a continuous increase.
In an attempt to out-macho the US and impress Germany , the ECB under Trichet decided to stamp on headline inflation hitting nearly 3% in early 2011, while core remained solidly below 2%.
Vincent Chan via Caixin | The Hong Kong dollar has been under pressure recently. On January 20, the value of the currency plunged to an eight-year low of 7.8228 to the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the stock market’s benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 3.8 percent from the previous day to 18,886.3, the lowest level in 42 months.
It is worth reading the article by Wolfgang Munchau in which he analyses the minutes of the last ECB Governing Council meeting. In short, Draghi affirms he is prepared to continue to try to drive inflation towards his 2% goal, but the Council members are not so enthusiastic. On the contrary, they put a spoke in his wheel.
Luis Carlos Croissier is a member of the board of Repsol, Spain’s biggest oil company. He recalls that proven global oil reserves are currently double the level they were in 1980. Croissier was also chairman of the CNMV, the stock exchange regulatory body, and responsible for the Spanish bourse’s “Big Bang”, at the end of 80’s. Before that time, he was Industry Minister in Spain’s Socialist party.