Trinh Nguyen (Natixis) | After the Philippines reported a shocking decline of GDP of -16.5% YoY, Malaysia topped it off with GDP falling by -17.1% YoY. The deterioration is in line with other Southeast Asian economic weakness -Singapore fell -13.2% and Indonesia -5.3%, much worse than during the Great Financial Crisis (Vietnam is the only that has positive Q2 GDP growth in ASEAN). While some of it is due to external demand decline, the severity of economic contraction is self-imposed via suppression measures that crushed domestic economic activity.
In the Asia Times there is an article about the tricks China has begun to use to conceal the truth about its foreign currency position. Up until December, China released the two figures corresponding to foreign currency reserves, that of the Central Bank and that of the banking sector (which let’s not forget is state-owned).
MADRID | The Corner | JPMorgan’s economic outlook forecasts that global growth is taking hold around midyear and as a rebound from weakness the US and Japan is reinforcing a more modest acceleration in the Euro area and emerging Asia. If JPMorgan analysts are right, this episode’s contours should mirror growth pivots in earlier expansions (during 2003 and 1993).
MADRID | The Corner | A bull market. But how sustainable? Asia ex Japan has just breached its 2011 high. Key to this is China. Over the last month MSCI China is up 7% on strong volume. It is now up 5% for the year. Easier monetary conditions, better growth data and improved earnings, meeting low valuations and poor sentiment, have driven the China rally and recent outperformance.
MADRID | By Julia Pastor | What can small countries’ firms do in the world biggest democracy, built on 28 nations more than regions? Some Spanish companies in India have been able to manage big four toll roads (Isolux), control 80% of its airspace safety (Indra), excel in the olive oil market (Borges), or even list in the Bombay’s stock exchange (CIE Automotive). After the historical victory of Narendra Modi their prospects are even better, considering that India’s middle-upper class ranges between 50 and 300 million people.
BEIJING | By Pu Jun via Caixin | Party’s intention to let market set certain prices seen as creating room for progress to be made in areas like electricity reform. References in a document released after a major meeting of Communist Party leaders to letting market forces set certain prices have given experts hope that progress on electricity-industry reforms can be made.
An unwritten rule seems to warrant that US defence spending is kept immune to the ups and downs of the nation's GDP. The extraordinary dimensions of the current economic downturn, nevertheless, is testing its past resilience to any sort of moderation. Public investment in military affairs has largely been the result of foreign policy and global strategy, government cabinets since 2001 would surely protest from Washington. But a federal deficit…
A curated selection of links we hope can enlighten us all; some come from our corner, some do from other corners of the net. And as always, our comment widgets are anxious to get your suggestions. Do investing strategies need a tech revolution? Germany forgot about the 1930s
LONDON | While the European Central Bank and the Spanish government argued on Wednesday about the best mechanism to salvage Bankia, Caroline Keen, a member of the team managing the Newton Asian income fund at investment house BNY Mellon, said euro crisis contagion was rapidly developing elsewhere, too. Keen warned that economic headwinds from the euro zone were likely to affect the Asia-Pacific ex Japan region for the remainder of…
Although the first signs of uncertainty have begun to emerge on the Asian continent with listed real estate companies trading at discounts, real estate fundamentals remain largely trusted. From the macro-economic perspective, Asian giants, China and India, continue to enjoy GDP growth rates of 9.1% and 7.7% respectively in Q3 2011, while other significant markets such as Singapore and Hong Kong also witnessed GDP growth of 6.1% and 4.3% respectively…