AXA IM | The past year has witnessed something of a turn-around in investors’ perceptions of the economic and financial outlook, chiefly on the back of hopes that the cloud of secular stagnation may be starting to dissipate. In our 2017 outlook, we take a step back from current market jitters and examine the fundamentals behind the present backdrop of ultra-low interest rates and poor economic growth. Simply we challenge the dominant idea that this is the fate of our future as investors.
Peter Lundgreen via Caixin| What should be deeply worrying about the growing banking crisis in Italy is the origin of the non-performing loans. One significant sector is retail and wholesale, meaning it’s a widespread problem. A severe banking crisis is a shock for any economy and will, in many cases, hamper economic growth. This is the risk that Italy and the Eurozone are facing.
Julius Baer Research| Thanks to significant fiscal support measures, China was able to keep its annual growth rate stable at 6.7% and even accelerate its quarterly expansion rate from 1.2% to 1.8% in Q2 2016. China has several options to manage the expected slowdown ahead: fiscal spending, interest-rate cuts and renminbi devaluation will be able to limit the cyclical risks ahead.
By the RSA | Two-thirds of the world’s population live in countries that are now more unequal than they were in 1980. Our politicians are hung up on keeping the economic growth curve rising. But does GDP really tell us all we need to know about a country’s wealth and well-being? In this Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (RSA) Short, Kate Raworth makes a powerful argument to look beyond economic growth alone for a true measure of prosperity and progress.
NOTE: The following article is based on a paper by Economic Adviser at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Stephen G. Cecchetti and his colleague Enisse Kharroubi. The full publication is available at BIS website. You can also download it here. One of the principal conclusions of modern economics is that finance is good for growth. But recent experience has led many people to question whether this conclusion is definitive….
His message was clear, no frills: “We are paying the consequences of Germany and France breaking the Fiscal Pact in 2003,” stated Spain’s economy minister Luis de Guindos on Friday at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington. In his first official visit to the US, Mr De Guindos tried to spur US confidence, explaining the key points of financial and labour reforms in Spain. “Europe and Spain’s main problem…
The happiness of Beijing residents is in recession for the fourth consecutive year. The reasons behind such state of mind are not exclusive of the Chinese capital and they represent the challenges the Communist Party will have to face during the year that has just begun in China. In Europe, the year 2012 exudes pessimism. Conversely, according to Chinese astrology, the symbolism attached to this mythological animal will bring power…