The European Commission estimates that the Spanish economy will grow by 4.6% in 2021, which represents a cut of 1.6 % compared to the estimate it made in July. According to these calculations, Spain will be the last of the four large euro economies to recover its pre-crisis GDP level. These data contrast with the optimism of the government, which sees a rise in GDP of 6.5% this year and an expansion of 7% a year later.
Simon Keane (Schroders) | “Output gap”, “bottlenecks”, “core inflation”, “base effects”, “second-round effects” “labour participation rate”. These are some of the key industry terms essential to understanding what’s going on with inflation.Soaring job vacancies reflect the strong economic recovery of the world’s major economies, as Covid-19 induced restrictions have been gradually eased. Shortages of materials, energy and transport have also been seen, resulting in backlogs of work across a number of sectors.
Up to half of European adults have now had at least one shot of the available Covid-19 vaccines, infection rates have fallen dramatically, and lockdowns are gradually easing across the continent. Vaccination success will allow Europe’s economic recovery to catch up with the US and China, says Robeco’s strategist Peter van der Welle.
By Barry Eichengreen via Caixin | The reform response to the financial crisis was mild compared to that of the Great Depression, but all is not lost.
MADRID | The Corner | Spain’s real GDP increased by 0.5% q/q in Q3 14 (flash estimate), in line with market consensus. Experts at Barclays believe that most of the growth contribution came from domestic demand, as weak eurozone growth in Q2 and Q3 likely implied soft external demand from key trading partners, including from the largest three economies.
SAO PAOLO | By Marcus Nunces via Historinhas |Matt O´Brien has gone over to the “dark side” writing “Why is the recovery so weak? It’s the austerity, stupid.”: Welcome to Austerity U.S.A., where the deficit is back below 3 percent of GDP and growth is still disappointing—which aren’t unrelated facts. It started when the stimulus ran out. Then state and local governments had to balance their budgets amidst a still-weak economy. And finally, there was the debt ceiling deal with its staggered $2.1 trillion of cuts over the next decade.
BARCELONA | By Joan Tapia | The Spanish economy has come out of recession and citizens have begun to notice, encouraged by a slight increase in employment creation (albeit temporary, part-time and minimum wage employment, but it at least entails an increase in those joining the workforce). Thus, the CIS’ Economic Confidence Indicator –which ranges from 0 and 100, recorded a low 35.7 (although it represents a 16% increase with respect to 2013). For its part, the Consumer Confidence indicator –which is different and ranges from 0 and 200- is at 89.3, 22% higher than the data from September 2013. The trend appears to point to an awakening of domestic demand.
MADRID | The Corner | As the global economy’s last data disappoint, shadow banks could be “compromising” growth even more, the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report released Wednesday pointed out. Since “banks representing almost 40 percent of total assets are not strong enough to supply adequate credit in support of the recovery,” Financial Counsellor José Viñals said, controlling their non-regulated peers remains a great challenge.
SAO PAOLO | By Marcus Nunes | In “The current state of the US economy explained in one chart”, Mark Perry shows the chart above. As I argued in “The previous peak is not the appropriate benchmark” (Parts 1 & 2), just because you´ve reached or surpassed the previous peak does not mean you have achieved a complete or full recovery.
THE CORNER TEAM | Because an image is worth more than 1,000 words, we are reposting here a fantastic idea by Quartz: they’ve put together 19 graphs of the global economic recovery, from the adjustments that the most crippled euro zone countries are making to Japan leaving deflation behind. Chill out, things are getting better… and it’s Friday.