economic recovery

fata morgana

The Fata Morgana, or how markets ignore that the greatest risk for 2023 lies in overestimating economic growth

Banca March | Sometimes, when the sun’s rays hit the sea water and there is a big difference in temperature, an optical illusion takes place which creates visual effects that can lead us to think that a boat is capable of “flying” several metres above the horizon. This effect, a mirage, is called Fata Morgana. Is this effusive start to 2023, in which global stock markets are up more than…

Over 90% of foreign companies in Spain expect to increase or maintain their investment in 2020

Spain Not To Reach Pre-Pandemic GDP Level Until Q1’23 VS Germany, France And Italy At End-2022

The European Commission estimates that the Spanish economy will grow by 4.6% in 2021, which represents a cut of 1.6 % compared to the estimate it made in July. According to these calculations, Spain will be the last of the four large euro economies to recover its pre-crisis GDP level. These data contrast with the optimism of the government, which sees a rise in GDP of 6.5% this year and an expansion of 7% a year later.


Five Charts Which Explain What Is Going On With Inflation

Simon Keane (Schroders) | “Output gap”, “bottlenecks”, “core inflation”, “base effects”, “second-round effects” “labour participation rate”. These are some of the key industry terms essential to understanding what’s going on with inflation.Soaring job vacancies reflect the strong economic recovery of the world’s major economies, as Covid-19 induced restrictions have been gradually eased. Shortages of materials, energy and transport have also been seen, resulting in backlogs of work across a number of sectors.

europe vaccination

Europe Takes Up The Baton

Up to half of European adults have now had at least one shot of the available Covid-19 vaccines, infection rates have fallen dramatically, and lockdowns are gradually easing across the continent. Vaccination success will allow Europe’s economic recovery to catch up with the US and China, says Robeco’s strategist Peter van der Welle.

No Picture

Which “austerity”? Fiscal or monetary?

SAO PAOLO | By Marcus Nunces via Historinhas |Matt O´Brien has gone over to the “dark side” writing “Why is the recovery so weak? It’s the austerity, stupid.”: Welcome to Austerity U.S.A., where the deficit is back below 3 percent of GDP and growth is still disappointing—which aren’t unrelated facts. It started when the stimulus ran out. Then state and local governments had to balance their budgets amidst a still-weak economy. And finally, there was the debt ceiling deal with its staggered $2.1 trillion of cuts over the next decade.

españa demanda domestica TC

Spanish domestic demand grows along with external deficit

BARCELONA | By Joan TapiaThe Spanish economy has come out of recession and citizens have begun to  notice, encouraged by a slight increase in employment creation (albeit temporary, part-time and minimum wage employment, but it at least entails an increase in those joining the workforce). Thus, the CIS’ Economic Confidence Indicator –which ranges from 0 and 100, recorded a low 35.7 (although it represents a 16% increase with respect to 2013). For its part, the Consumer Confidence indicator –which is different and ranges from 0 and 200- is at 89.3, 22% higher than the data from September 2013. The trend appears to point to an awakening of domestic demand.

No Picture

IMF’s Global financial stability report: Shadow banking may compromise recovery

MADRID | The Corner | As the global economy’s last data disappoint, shadow banks could be “compromising” growth even more, the IMF’s Global Financial Stability Report released Wednesday pointed out. Since “banks representing almost 40 percent of total assets are not strong enough to supply adequate credit in support of the recovery,” Financial Counsellor José Viñals said, controlling their non-regulated peers remains a great challenge. 


Economic Recovery: “Never reason from the previous peak”

SAO PAOLO | By Marcus Nunes | In “The current state of the US economy explained in one chart”, Mark Perry shows the chart above. As I argued in “The previous peak is not the appropriate benchmark” (Parts 1 & 2), just because you´ve reached or surpassed the previous peak does not mean you have achieved a complete or full recovery.