elections

European economy 13th June 2022

Macron And Melenchon Tie Amid Record Abstention And Everything Will Be Decided In The Second Round

The candidates of Macron’s centrist grouping and the left-wing candidates of Mélenchon’s “New Popular Ecological and Social Union” (NUPES) obtained around 25% of the vote each in the first round of the French legislative elections, which ended with a record abstention rate in France’s recent history. More than half of the electorate (around 53%) stayed away from the polls. All will be decided in the second round next Sunday. The…

European politics 25th April 2022

Macron Stays In The Elysée

After a crisis-plagued mandate, centrist Emmanuel Macron on Sunday became the first president to win re-election in France since 2002. With 58.54% of the vote, the candidate of La République en Marche, once again defeated Marine Le Pen, standard-bearer of Rassemblement Nationale, who would have won 41.46% of the vote in Sunday’s election. “From now on, I am no longer the candidate of one camp, but the president of all,”…

Spanish Politics 14th February 2022

Castilla Y León: A Little More Complicated

Fernando González Urbaneja | Elections in Castilla y León: 31 seats for PP, 28 seats for PSOE, 13 for VOX, 3 for Unión del Pueblo Leonés, 3 for Soria Ya, 1 for Podemos Izquierda Unida, 1 seat for Ciudadanos and 1 seat for Por Ávila… The Castilla y León voters have not left any of the candidates happy, with the exception of VOX. It has consolidated its position as third…

European economy 10th October 2021

The EU After The German Elections: More Realpolitik?

European Views | The way the EU appears on the world stage, where it all too often seems weak, uncoordinated and overly moralising in its approach to world affairs. Germany’s long-time chancellor Merkel has played a key role in this. Throughout 16 years, Berlin has helped transform the EU into an ineffective paper tiger that styles itself as a superpower, yet that is frequently proving unable to deal effectively with hard geopolitical questions – from securing its borders to dealing with China. What is really needed is a new approach to EU foreign policy, especially at a time when German voters’ interest in foreign policy and EU affairs is at its lowest in years.

Today’s German election is likely to be one of the most open contests in decades

Relevant News Item 26th September 2021

Germany After Merkel: What’s Next?

Azad Zangana (Schroders) | Today’s is a major milestone election for Germany, and many will be keeping a close eye on the outcome. In any case, though we should see the results soon, negotiations to form the next coalition are likely to take several months given the potential wide range of combinations on offer. The new chancellor may not be inaugurated before 2022.

European politics 21st September 2021

German Election Guide

Nick Ottens (Atlantic Sentinel) | Germans elect a new Bundestag on Sunday, which will elect Angela Merkel’s successor. It is the first time since 1983 that a sitting chancellor isn’t seeking reelection. If the polls are right, Merkel’s center-right Christian Democrats will lose power to the center-left Social Democrats for the first time since 2005. Here is everything you need to know. Bottom lines The Social Democrats (SPD) are projected…

European economy 4th September 2021

Germany At The End Of The Merkel Era: The Next Coalition To Inherit An Economy Not Fully Recovered

Bruno Cavalier (ODDO BHF) | In a few weeks’ time, Angela Merkel will cease to be Chancellor, a position she has held since 2005. Polls show that the three main contenders to succeed her are tied. Despite Germany’s good performance in the first Covid-19 wave, successive waves of contagions brought new restrictions in early 2021, delaying the recovery. Also, Germany clearly suffers from its overexposure to the automotive industry, which is 25 points below normal.

European politics 1st September 2021

Laschet Is Dragging Germany’s Christian Democrats Down

Nick Ottens (Atlantic Sentinel) | It’s too soon to tell you I told you so. The German election is still a month away. But it is starting to look like the ruling Christian Democrats made a mistake nominating Armin Laschet, the prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, for the chancellorship. Laschet would succeed Angela Merkel, who is not seeking a fifth term after sixteen years in power. I argued in December…

Spanish economy 10th May 2021

Spain: Early Elections Due To Coalition Exhaustion?

Fernando González Urbaneja | The first reaction of the socialists after the Madrid elections was to distance themselves, almost indifferent, with the argument that Madrid is not Spain. That was the end of it. But it did not hold water. Third in Galicia, opposition in Catalonia, minority in the Basque Country, opposition in Andalusia… and third in Madrid. So much for a governing party. And too much to sustain the…

In the World, World economy 1st March 2021

Bond Markets Warm Up To The Approval Of The US $1,9 Tr Stimulus Package In Early March

Olivia Álvarez (Monex Europe) | Joe Biden’s proposed $1,9 Tr stimulus bill will run its race in Senate next week, as House Democrats passed the legislation on Friday. The package includes $1400 direct payments to most Americans, a $400 weekly jobless benefit and an extension of unemployment insurance programs to a larger share of eligible candidates. The bill also includes $20bn for Covid-19 vaccinations, $50bn for testing and $350bn into state and local aids. The plan also aims to hike the federal minimum wage to $15/hour by 2025, although this particular amendment hangs on a thin balance.

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