BERLIN | Alberto Lozano | After the strong performance of the German stock market yesterday, one of the hardest hit in recent weeks by the greater exposure of its companies to the Russian market, Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann expressed his confidence in the growth of the German economy and the euro area during the second half of the year after the paralysis of the second quarter. In fact, Bundesbank considers that the “accumulation of bad news” is responsible of the decline in the 2Q, what could change the spring forecasts, although the basic trend suggests a strengthening in the second half of the year. Moreover, the Bundesbank wanted to make clear that although “the sentiment has deteriorated from a high level, the fact that the trend for domestic demand continues basically high suggests the economy has not changed direction.”
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Euro area “flash” June HICP remained unchanged at 0.5% y/y, in line with our and consensus expectations. Printing 0.51% y/y at two decimal places (very close to our 0.50% y/y estimate), today’s outturn is technically only very slightly higher than last month (0.49% y/y) and March (0.47% y/y). It remains nonetheless very weak indeed.
LONDON | By Laurent Fransolet at Barclays | While the debate about the ECB policy options and the state of the euro economy continues, and euro area financial markets have been stuck in a tight range recently, some important monetary, activity and inflation data have been released in the past few days. Overall, they point to the recovery proceeding, in a low inflation environment, and the ECB staying on hold for now.
LONDON | By Barclays analysts | Although Q3 GDP data for euro area countries indicated growth for the second consecutive quarter, thereby confirming the end of the recession after six quarters of GDP contraction, it also showed the recovery to be subdued, uneven, and fragile.
LONDON | By BARCLAYS | Euro area industrial production rose significantly by 1.0% m/m in August, broadly in line with our expectations (+0.9% m/m, consensus: +0.8% m/m). This increase offset the drop recorded in July entirely.
Inflation in the euro area falls by 0.1 percentage points to 2.5% year-on-year. CaixaBank analysts predict a downward slide in inflation over the coming months.
By Luis Martí, in Madrid | Amid the recent flurry of proposals for restructuring of the euro zone and opinions on its decomposition, seasoned with all sorts of half truths, two reports –one of the European Commission, by order of Parliament, and one of the Council of Economic Experts which advises the German government– have seriously dealt with the viability of Eurobond-based-solutions. The Commission's report was published late 2011 as a…
Hourly labour costs in the euro area rose by 2.0% in the year up to the first quarter of 2012, compared with 2.8% for the previous quarter, Eurostat reported today. In the European Union, the annual rise was 1.7% up to the first quarter of 2012, compared with 2.7% for the previous quarter. In the euro area, wages and salaries per hour worked grew by 2.0% in the year up to…
In March 2012 compared with February 2012, the volume of retail trade rose by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU. In February, retail trade fell by 0.2% and 0.5% respectively. In March 2012, compared with March 2011, the retail sales index dropped by 0.2% in the euro area, but grew by 1.0% in the EU. These first estimates came from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In March…