Bank of America Global Research | Oil futures have collapsed by more than 60% since the start of the year, with the WTI front month contract testing $20/bbl several times in recent weeks. The dramatic decline in prices is attributable in part to the oil price war, but the primary driver has been demand. As coronavirus fears forced governments around the world to shut down their economies, demand for refined products has been hit particularly hard.
In its latest monthly report, the European Central Bank has published an interesting study on the recent evolution of the wealth of European families.The monetary authority’s objective is to relate families’ net wealth component (assets less debt) to their spending decision. It’s a fact that, in theory, net wealth accumulated with job prospects are both key for household consumption. In addition, wealth also has theoretical consequences for the design of monetary policy.
Compared to American companies, European companies have a higher average dividend yield and lower valuations, which are attractive for those investors who prefer to be more defensive in the last stages of the cycle.
Ivan Dikov (European Views) | Leftist Zoran Milanovic, a former Prime Minister, has been elected President of Croatia, beating closely right-wing incumbent Kolinda Grabar-Kitarovic. Croatia, which was the last country to join the European Union back in 2013, has just assumed the rotating Presidency of the Council of the EU for the first time in its history.
José Ramón Díez Guijarro (Bankia Estudios) | The end of the year has served to dismiss some of the doubts that have distorted the decisions of the economic agents during the last months, ballasting the growth rates of the activity. Visibility has improved in the short term, yet uncertainty is here to stay
A&G Banca | The last macro data from November are generally better , but as the indexes of economic surprises point out, the rebound is less remarkable than the consensus forecast.
The broadband market continues to grow in Spain: 31% penetration in Spain vs. 42% on average in other European countries, analysts at Morgan Stanley point out.
Igor de Maack (Natixis) | Years of negative rates may well be coming to an end, with a reversal of investor sentiment for bonds over the last few weeks. In fact, the French 10-year rate is now verging on 0%. However, these years will leave their mark in terms of the extravagance of the monetary policies implemented for the purposes of “Saving Private Capitalism”, lost on the battlefield of excessive debt and driven into the trenches of complex finance.
DWS | Quarterly earnings are down year-on-year and 2020 forecasts are being cut further. It’s hope that is driving markets for now.