J.P.Marín Arrese | Jerome Powell raises the stakes day by day by making bolder than ever decisions. He shatters the image of shyness, prudence and circumspection he offered when taking over the Fed chairmanship. His last daring move has left markets flabbergasted. No wonder. He has pledged 2.3 trillion to buy ungraded bonds and to set up a massive lending facility for Main Street companies, thus breaking the golden rule of including only high-rated paper in the Fed balance sheet.
Unigestión | Whether it is called QE or not, buying bills (swapping reserves for short-term bonds), injecting liquidity into the market place and growing the balance sheet affects risky assets. Market conditioning (the Pavlovian effect) since the GFC is that stock markets cannot go down when the Fed is growing the balance sheet. Additionally, the Fed’s extremely aggressive response to the repo blowout in September is another signal to markets that it has a very low tolerance for market fluctuations.
TwentyFour Asset Management’s CEO Mark Holman thinks central banks will move on rates any time soon, but where the first move comes from might be harder to call. They are sure it will not be the UK, thank goodness and also sure it won’t be the ECB. It won’t be the US in the near future either.
via The Conversation | After a pause of a few months, the world’s leading central banks are “printing” money again to try to bolster their economies. Commonly known as quantitative easing or QE, the European Central Bank (ECB) resumed its programme just before the turn of the year. The backdrop is lukewarm growth, a looming recession in Germany, and persistent fears of Japanese-style deflation.
CaixaBank Research | The Fed has cut interest rates in 2019 for the first time in 11 years. However, it has barely lowered its growth outlook for the US and has justified the cut with the weakness of inflation and the persistence of risks. Is it possible that the Fed has changed its reaction function? The results of the analysis in this article suggest so.
J. P. Marín-Arrese | Once again, Jerome Powell played down the need for monetary easing in the press conference following the Fed’s rate cut decision. His unconvincing delivery led Mr Trump to heap scorn on his uninspiring performance. For once, his bitter recriminations were fully justified.
Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, Julius Baer │It is about time: central bankers present their take on the current mess at the Jackson Hole meeting, the prime plat-form for this. The more concerned they are the better. We think concerted central bank action will still avoid a global recession. Warming up to fiscal easing, as in Germany, is the icing on the cake.
Renta 4 | The September meetings of the Federal Reserve and ECB will be key in economic and market developments in the Autumn. The market discounts with 58% probability an ECB cut in the deposit rate to -0.6%.
Miguel Navascués | Central banks announcements are better than nothing, but may not be enough. In my opinion, the central message of Keynes is that, for those taking investment decisions, the future cannot be reduced to a risk calculus formula, because there is always a zone of uncertainty (by definition incalculable) which influences spending decisions: consumption, but, above all, productive investment.
A soft landing is the Holy Grail of central bankers. The glory that accrues from avoiding the economic costs of a recession by skilful manipulation of interest rates. But do such efforts to avoid, or mitigate, recessions simply store up trouble for the future? Does seeking to avoid a recession simply lead to a worse recession in the future?