French elections will likely serve as a way to take the populism temperature, as well as being the next step towards de-globalisation. As the Dutch general elections showed, the populist drive may prove to be not as strong as anticipated by the polls. But most of the media is presenting the French elections in this way. Furthermore, it has to be considered the fact that the pollsters underestimated the force of populism last year in the UK.
Marine Le Pen is likely to win the most votes in the first round, but she can only count on approximately seven million loyal voters out of possibly more than 46 million in the second round.