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euro españa

Spanish economy 29th July 2016

The Risks For The Spanish Economy In 2017 Begin To Take Shape

Spain’s GDP growth rate in the first half of this year has been solid. In the second quarter, GDP expanded 0.7% quarter-on-quarter nearly in line with the 0.8% rise in the first quarter, translating into a 3.2% year-on-year increase. So overall, the balance for the first half of 2016 has been favourable. And the strong performance over this period means that it is very likely GDP growth will be close to 3% for the full-year. But there are downward risks for 2017.

 

 

european parliament

In Europe 26th July 2016

Hot Potatoes? Encouraging News From Euro Land

James Alexander | It’s been lonely blogging that the Euro Area economy was not nearly as bad as consensus reckons, even consensus amongst our fellow Market Monetarists. But the data has consistently shown Euro Area NGDP growth doing better, and at least as good as the long-term average.

 

ECB's communication strategy on QE

In Europe 26th May 2016

Eurozone’s Inflation Overshoot Is The Natural Slope

BoAML | Even with structural reforms, trend GDP growth may not be consistent with comfortable debt sustainability in key peripherals by the time inflation normalizes. If the euro area does not make progress towards fiscal union in the meantime, the ECB will likely have to remain involved on the bond market.

Eurozone financial markets

In Europe 19th May 2016

Is the Eurozone Ready for the Next Crisis?

The 2008 financial crisis was not a one-off event. The resources that were available to cope with that crisis would not necessarily be there if there was another crisis. Government debt and GDP ratios are still high, and pension and health costs are escalating across Europe.

BCE.TC

In Europe 21st April 2016

The ECB Can Only Wait For Now

BofAML | No surprises. We do not expect any ECB action this week. After the package in March, we think the ECB will have a few months before going back to the drawing board. Dovish Fed tones and EUR appreciation do not help the ECB, but action beyond a reiteration of forward guidance seems very unlikely.

yuan

World economy 28th March 2016

G-20 Should Address Income Gap, Fragility of Financial Systems

Guntram B. Wolff via Caixin | G-20 ministers in Shanghai appeared to be aware of the importance of structural work. In particular, there was agreement in our panel discussions that the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) project of the OECD was an essential element to deal with tax avoidance and ensure that profits are taxed where economic activity generating it takes place.

europa usa guay

World economy 10th March 2016

Euro Area Grows As Fast As The US

James Alexander via Historinhas | Despite all the pessimism the Euro Area nearly caught up with US NGDP growth in Q4. Now that Italy and Spain have finally reported their Nominal GDP figures Eurostat shows that 4Q15 NGDP growth for the Euro monetary region as a whole was almost as fast, year-on-year, as the US.