Bankinter| Germany’s economy and inflation surprised positively in 3Q23. GDP declined -0.3% year-on-year in the period compared to -0.7% expected and +0.0% previous (it was revised up from -0.2%). On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth was -0.1% compared to -0.2% expected and +0.1% previously (revised from +0.0%). On the CPI side, the headline rate rose by +3.8% year-on-year compared to +4.0% expected and +4.5% previously. On a month-on-month basis, inflation was…
BancaMarch: Business confidence indicators in Germany and France this morning continue to show weakness in growth in the coming months. In Germany, the composite PMI deteriorated more than expected, falling back to 45.8 from 46.4 and below the 46.7 expected. This performance was mainly explained by a sharp drop in confidence in the German services sector (48 vs. 50.3 previously) while manufacturing continued to contract (40.7 vs. 39.6 previously). In…
Banca March: Weakness in German manufacturing sector continues in August. This is the fourth consecutive month of declines in industrial production in the face of high energy prices, weak global demand and worsening financial conditions. Aggregate production is down -0.2% in the month and -2% on a year-on-year basis. The main drag is energy production and the construction sector, with monthly declines of -6.6% and -2.4% respectively.
Banca March: In September the IFO business sentiment index fell by one tenth of a point to 85.7, this weakness was mainly due to a drop in the reading for the current situation, which fell by three tenths to 88.7, while the expectations component improved by two tenths to 82.9. Overall, this confidence indicator is in line with last week’s PMI and points to the deterioration in Germany’s growth continuing…
Bankinter: German Factory Orders fell sharply in July. Factory Orders were down -11.7% vs. – the -4.0% expected and +7.6% previous (revised from +7.0%). Assessment: This is bad news for the German industrial sector and further evidence of the weaknesses of the eurozone benchmark country’s economy. Despite the upward revision of the previous figure, July’s figure turned out to be out much worse than expected and registered its lowest since…
Banca March: Germany has agreed to make a corporate tax cut totalling €6.5 billion. After Sunday’s tense negotiations between Lisa Paus, Minister for Family Affairs and member of the Green Party, and Christian Linder, Minister of Finance and member of the Social Democratic Party, the German government finally agreed on a total of €6.5 billion. In the end, €6.5 billion were earmarked for companies and €2.4 billion for households. The…
Banca March| German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, Germany’s finance minister and a member of the Green party, is proposing restrictions on sectors where Chinese influence could pose a threat to Western economic security. These include semiconductors, artificial intelligence and quantum computing. These measures are framed in a context of debate and criticism of China’s geopolitical situation; authoritarianism in the country, military threats against Taiwan and ties with Russia. On the…
BancaMarch: The German Council of Ministers on Wednesday approved the draft budget for 2024, in which it plans to return to the path of fiscal consolidation and which envisages an increase in defence spending and cuts in all other departments, among which the most affected are transport, science and the family. Spending will thus have to fall by 6.4%, from €476.3 billion in 2023 to €445.7 billion the following year….
The German 2s10s curve has inverted to two-decade highs, surpassing the levels seen in March. Macro continues to slow and Morgan Stanley (MS) analysts lower their growth forecasts for Europe with the German IFO contracting, for the second consecutive month more than expected by both consensus and Morgan Stanley… and in line with last Friday’s disappointing European PMIs. The bad data is again concentrated in the deterioration of the expectations…
Link Securities| The German Federal Statistical Office yesterday published that Germany’s producer price index (PPI) fell 1.4% in May compared to April, significantly more than the 0.7% decline expected by FactSet’s consensus of analysts. On a year-on-year-year basis, Germany’s PPI rebounded by 1.0% in the month of May (4.1% in April), a reading that was also well below the 1.7% increase expected by analysts. May’s year-on-year PPI growth rate was…