FMCG companies’ quarterly accounts presentations are clearly on the upside, implying that the current bout of higher than usual inflation rates (in recent years) will be with us for longer than expected. For example, Nestlé reported that it is already passing on higher energy, transport and raw material costs to the end customer, resulting in the Swiss company applying an average price increase of 2.1% to its products in Q3’21….
Bert Flossbach (Flossbach von Storch) | Delivery times for goods are rising worldwide due to a lack of intermediate products. The acute shortage of semiconductors, which are used in almost all devices, machines and cars, is causing particularly large problems for many companies. Ford therefore stopped production at its plant in Cologne until the end of October and Opel even stopped production in Eisenach until the end of the year….
José Ramón Díaz (Caixabank Research) | The recent deterioration of the growth/inflation mix is the result of the dynamics of an asymmetric recovery and will remain subject to a high level of uncertainty in the coming quarters. Nevertheless, we are still far from a scenario of stagflation like that of the 1970s, which is the major source of concern for a number of economists. This is because, firstly, the global economy is much more flexible than it was 50 years ago. Also, economic policy, especially in the monetary sphere, now has the tools (and the independence) to respond to such a risk.
Link Securities | According to the final estimate for the figure, released by the National Statistics Institute (INE), the consumer price index (CPI) in Spain rose by 0.8% in September compared with August. This brings the year-on-year growth rate to 4.0% (3.7% in August). The reading was in line with its preliminary one and with analysts’ consensus expectations. Inflation is thus at its highest level since September 2008. In September,…
J.P. Marín-Arrese | The Opposition accuses the Spanish PM of clinging to power regardless of the ways and means for achieving that goal. He indeed broke his electoral promise of never coming to terms with extreme-left Podemos. Before the polls, he told voters he wouldn’t sleep in peace sharing his bed with that party’s leader. After Election Day, he rushed to set up a coalition government with him, making his…
The consumer price index (CPI) in Spain rose by 0.4% in August to 3.3% year-on-year, the highest rate since October 2012, as a result of higher electricity prices according to the CPI leading indicator published on Monday by the National Statistics Institute (INE). This advanced indicator, if confirmed, would represent an increase of four tenths of a percentage point compared with the year-on-year rate recorded in July (2.9%) and would…
Peter Isackson | When nearly all incremental wealth is tied up in assets that may come tumbling down at any moment, nobody is secure. After the crash, the rich will lament their losses and their inability to rebuild. Millions will lose their gig work and below-survival wages in real jobs with no hope for a rebound. And with COVID-19 still creating havoc and climate change more and more visibly aggravating its effects, the problem of inflation we should be most worried about is the verbal inflation of experts who believe their discourse is capable of shoring up a failing system.
The CPI remains at 2.7% in June, its highest rate in four years, due to electricity and food prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% in June compared with the previous month and placed its year-on-year rate at 2.7%, the same as in May and one tenth of a percentage point higher than at the end of last month, according to data published today by the National Statistics…
Monex Europe | Today’s announcement by the European Central Bank can be perceived as net dovish in the short-term by markets, as the shift from an asymmetric target to a new symmetric 2% inflation target gives the central bank ample room to run accommodative monetary policy for longer without having to fight markets. Previously, the ECB’s inflation target was set at “below, but close to 2%”, which contributed to the eurozone’s structural issues with low inflation for years. By changing this target to a symmetric target, which means any undershoots and overshoots would be equally undesirable, the central bank moves the bar slightly upwards for inflation before policy is required to tighten.
José Ramón Díez (CaixaBank Research) | While expected, the rise in inflation is causing discomfort due to the high levels that have been reached and the risk of it persisting at those levels for longer than desirable without investors being startled. The key is whether we are faced with an economy that is simply skidding around as it seeks to accelerate from 0 to 60 in a short time, in which case inertia will allow it to easily regain stability; or, on the contrary, overheating caused by an excessively expansive demand-focused policy could test the strength of the economic engine.