Near-dated crude oil prices have rallied on robust demand and falling inventories, but long-dated prices have not moved. BoAML’s analysts see close to 1.5 mn b/d of output oil facing some risk of disruption, primarily across Venezuela, Iran, and Libya.
European buybacks seem to be increasing by approximately 25 billion euros to a universe of 420 shares (excluding the banks) with a combined market capitalisation of 8 billion euros.
Oil continues to flirt with USD 70 per barrel and it remains to be seen if prices are able to lastingly settle above this much-watched level with the latest up move. Global growth optimism, the bullish market mood and technical momentum still provide robust support.
The Crown Prince and de-facto ruler of the Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, (MBS) launched an anti-corruption drive to safeguard the reform and modernization of the Saudi economy. Oil meanwhile looks to have broken out to the upside, which is very much a function of Brent Crude rather than West Texas Intermediate. The gap down started to open in August with Hurricane Harvey, not now with Saudi developments.
Citi’s research analysts targets two significant issues on this recent decline: disinflation pressures and what would happen if oil prices don’t recover.
Energy markets has been taking a beating with oil and natural gas prices down across the board. For once, the fundamental news flow was ample. The US Energy Administration reported their weekly set of data, which showed a stronger-than-expected increase of crude oil and oil products in storage.
The commodity complex continues to soften with oil prices sliding below USD 50 per barrel and Chinese heavy industry commodities rushing lower. The resource reflation tide recedes with benchmark indices such as the Bloomberg Commodity Index trending towards last year’s levels. Commodity prices revert towards fundamentally reasonable levels on supply rather than demand trends.
The price-inventory apparent mismatch of crude oil matters to the extent that going long crude appears to be a crowded trade so that the risks are on the downside if it were to happen that the “confirmed” cuts have been more paper ones than real ones.
Julius Baer Research | Oil’s push above USD 58 per barrel on the first trading day of the year seemingly only was a temporary burst of energy. The market’s focus is on quota compliance as the oil producers must now walk the talk of supply cuts. We remain sceptical that the supply deal will have a material impact, swiftly erase surplus supplies and provide lasting support to prices.
Carax Alphavalue | The recent OPEC deal was more than welcomed by the Norwegian oil company which has more than 60% of its production coming from the Continental Shelf. With little by way of refining compared to its integrated oil peers’, Statoil’s (Add, Norway) earnings are a near direct call on oil prices.