Bankia Estudios | At end-2016, the emerging economies’ public debt rose to 11.7 trillion dollars, double the level of 2007, reaching 51% of GDP, according to a report from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). But the composition of that debt is improving and has reduced the risk fuelled by market volatility in uncertain times.
Top economists and heads of UK institutions and companies are demanding a clear strategy from Downing Street on how the government will collaborate to weather the Brexit storm. Many are sceptical about the overly-optimistic picture painted by Theresa May and Philip Hammond about the economic future.
The European Commission has published its evaluation of the progress made by different countries towards their economic and social priorities. The report highlights that the Spanish economy is growing at a good pace and is gradually correcting its weaknesses. But there continue to be huge imbalances, like still high unemployment and the high levels of both public and private debt.
We have seen how the public debt figures are being manipulated downward, and now we’re going to see how there are also manipulations in Spanish GDP, but this time they are upward. From this we can infer that the ratio of debt/GDP, which is a crucial figure for the health of any economy, is seriously undervalued.
There are some items of Spanish public debt which are eliminated from Bank of Spain’s accounts, reducing the total figure. In other words, 450 billion euros ignored. Basically, what is being removed is public companies’ debt, the debt issued by a public institution in the hands of another public institution, as well as other adjustments, which really should not be discounted.
Miguel Ángel Tramullas | Investment in public debt has traditionally been one of the most popular fixed income assets with both retail and institutional investors. It’s considered as a safe-haven. But in the last few years, it has lost part of its attraction because of lower interest rates which in some places are now in negative territory. To protect themselves, many countries like the US, Japan, the UK, France, Italy and also Spain have begun to issue inflation-linked bonds.
The impact of Brexit on the markets has gone through different stages. There was the initial upheaval in the wake of the referendum result, which had its maximum effect on June 24 when the Ibex recorded its biggest ever fall. And now the stock market and European public debt yields have recovered to pre-Brexit levels.
Investors’ fears and their hunt for safe haven assets are having an unsuspected impact on European public debt yields: nearly two thirds of these securities are in negative territory; the German bund is beating a new record low on a daily basis and Spanish debt is approaching the minimum levels recorded in April 2015.
Spain’s public debt stood at 1.070 trillion euros in the fourth quarter, 7.562 billion euros more than in the previous one, according to Bank of Spain data. (datos del Banco de España).
Spain’s political debate is going on between two irreconcilable adversaries, each one with its own issues. Meanwhile, in the back room where the accounts are done, there is hard work going on to refinance the public and private debt which matures every day. Without some tailwinds, Spain (BBB) could once again find itself facing serious problems.