George Brown (Schroders) | Russia is now the most sanctioned country in the world following its illegal invasion of Ukraine, which has brought misery to millions. More than 2,000 additional Western sanctions have been brought in against a broad range of individuals, corporations and institutions. Measures have also been put in place to exclude it from international payments systems, using major reserve currencies or accessing key technologies such as semiconductors….
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The unprecedented sanctions imposed on Russia in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine are likely to have devastating consequences. But this will depend on whether Russia manages to bypass the sanctions or, at the very least, mitigate them. One important consideration to answer this question is China’s potential role in offering a helping hand to the Russian economy. China’s economic size and financial clout,…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Given the delicate situation in Ukraine and the US imposition of sanctions on Russia, followed by the European Union (EU), it seems important to assess how much Russia can rely on China as a trading partner. Although trade between the EU and Russia has lost some steam since Putin’s “Pivoting to the East” announced during his 2021 campaign and the sanctions imposed in 2014 due…
Atradius Research | Using a policy of fiscal austerity and credible inflation targeting, the Russian government has successfully insulated its economy from external shocks, including sanctions. Despite its success, the ‘Fortress’ strategy has also come at a cost: discontent among the population is growing over stagnating economic growth and declining real incomes. If Russia is to raise its income level, more robust reforms are needed to overcome structural impediments to…
Angela Freyre (Julius Baer) | Russia’s central bank slashed its benchmark interest rate to a post-Soviet low as the economy enters a deep recession fuelled by the fall in oil prices and the coronavirus pandemic. The bank lowered its key rate by 100 basis points to 4.5%, following a 50 basis-point cut in April.
Xavier Colás (Moscow) | Russia had a taste of democracy in the 1990s, and people’s needs increased. With the rouble’s brutal devaluation, the average Russian felt free, but at the same time associated this with huge economic decline. And now Russians prefer economic security to freedom.
Xavier Colás | Russia is hoping that in 2017 its economic indicators will look brighter again after three years of questions over the country’s economic health due to sanctions, rock-bottom oil prices and a rouble which has lost half of its value.
DUBLIN | By Sean Duffy | With fears surrounding the Eurozone, Russia and the BRICS economies, the only certainty about the year 2015 appears to be that it will continue a period of global economic uncertainty. The Corner takes a look at some of the issues and factors that are likely to dominate the headlines in the year ahead.
MADRID | By Ana Fuentes and Sean Duffy | Uncertainty surrounding the future impact of sanctions both at home and abroad has seen a mass exodus of capital from Russia this year. The Government has sought to address the issue by offering an amnesty to Russians with money stashed overseas. Over $100 billion has left the country in 2014 and Alexander Pechersky, a managing partner from ALT R&C, is sceptical about the impact this latest measure will have. “I don’t really believe in the efficiency of this amnesty. I think this is a measure for the media and to gain some headlines.”
MADRID | The Corner | The ruble plummeted on Monday, suffering its worst daily fall since Russia’s 1998 crisis, plunging more than 6% against the dollar before recovering to losses of around 4% Lowering oil prices are killing the currency, and yet Moscow does not intend to cut production in 2015, leaving output at the current 525-526 million metric tons. Russian analysts commenting for The Corner explained there is enough currency liquidity in the market to handle the shock. At least for now.