Miguel Navascués | Everyone talks ever more passionately demanding that climate change be slowed by changing from energy based on oil and gas to one that does not produce CO2. But no-one explains if technological change will really allow this to happen in time.
Claudio Borio, chief economist at the Bank of International Payments (BIS) in Basel, believes that the question that differentiates what has been happening in continental Europe from what has been happening to some extent in the US, the UK and other economies, including Spain, is the extent to which the banking problems and the asset quality problems have been adressed head-on.
As the global outlook improves, many people ask what’s happened to Larry Summer’s hypothesis of Secular Stagnation, which says there are clear signs that the economic world has been “cooling down” for decades. And currently, everything seems to make us think that the recovery we have on our doorstep is not going to be strong or long-lasting.
Emilio Ontiveros | The Spanish economy grew more than its European counterparts and current tailwinds such as low oil prices also favour it over the rest of the member states. But the country still has a lot to do to become a major league player.
In a few days the Fed will meet and, inevitably, will raise interest rates. It is inevitable because it would contradict its discourse if this doesn’t happen. In the short-term it is unlikely to present any problems, because the move is already discounted. But there is something worse: there is the risk that the Fed makes a mistake which it later has to rectify, as has happened in other countries. Sweden is the main example.
The markets sway to the rhythm of the central banks, but it’s not clear that monetary policy alone can solve the serious economic problems affecting most of the planet. Perhaps it would be a good thing to take heed of Summers idea that it is preferable to back productive investment and not the creation of bubbles supported by low interest rates.
South Korean economist Ha-Joon Chang argues that although orthodox thinking is to cut debt, the most effective way for countries to grow is to boost their income. As for the recovery, this expert in emerging markets notes that the world economy is not really picking up in the way that it usually does after a big downturn. This is the first part of our conversation.
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes | Larry Summer made a splash with his closing speech at the IMF Conference. That was probably his intention following him being denied the Fed Chair. Several people have taken turns both critiquing and asserting his “secular stagnation” thesis.