World economy

After growing 3.2% in 2019, the global economy will expand 3.2% in 2020 and 3.3% in 2021

After Growing 3.2% In 2019, The Global Economy Will Expand 3.2% In 2020 And 3.3% In 2021

These growth forecasts are  dependent upon keeping geopolitical tensions in check, in addition to other risks threatening the world economy. Specifically, our scenario assumes that recent tensions between the US, Iran, and Iraq will have no permanent negative impact on the global environment. In particular, oil prices are expected to stabilize at about $61 per barrel over the next two years, below the average value recorded in 2019 ($ 64) or the current price ($ 68).

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Oil: 2020 Spells Geopolitics For Energy

Norbert Rücker (Julius Baer) |  The oil market is off to a rocky start as the tensions between the United States and Iran escalate. The situation brings lots of uncertainty and geopolitical tea-leaf reading on reactions. While the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a very unlikely event, the deterioration in Iraq bears supply risks. Geopolitics tend to be a temporary force on oil markets and we believe this time is no different. We raise our near-term forecast to USD 65 per barrel, and maintain a Neutral view on oil.