Bankinter | Good results for Q1 2025 and attractive assessment. Key figures compared to market consensus: EBITDA €1,431 million (+33%) versus €1,370 million estimated; NPA €583 million (+100%) versus €481 million estimated; Funds from Operations (FFO): €1,243; Net debt €10,159 million versus €9,294 million in December 2024.
The management team maintains its 2025 guidance, which envisages EBITDA of between €5.4 billion and €5.6 billion (between +3% and +7%) and ordinary net profit of between €1.9 billion and €2 billion (between -4% and +0.4%).
Bankinter analysis team’s view: Positive news. Good results in Q1 and guidance for 2025 maintained. Positive factors in the results: (i) Improvement in the Generation and Marketing businesses (ii) Higher electricity production (+2%). Higher production from hydro, nuclear and combined cycle offsets a decline in solar and wind power. (iii) Lower taxes, with the suspension of the special tax on electricity companies of 1.2% of their revenues in Spain.
Following these results, we maintain our buy recommendation. Reasons: (i) Attractive valuation ratios. Based on our estimates, the P/E ratio stands at 14.2x in 2025; (ii) Solid financial structure, with a net debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.8x in the 2024-27 period; (iii) High dividend yield: 5.0% in 2025. Taking into account the dividends included in the 2027 Strategic Plan (€4 billion) and the €2 billion Share Buyback Plan until 2027, shareholders could receive a total of €6 billion in three years. This remuneration represents 20% of its current market capitalisation. (iv) Progress in decarbonisation, thanks to investments in renewables and (v) A business model with greater visibility, thanks to growth in networks and long-term contracts in generation and marketing.
