The best indicator of activity in the Eurozone is not the PMIs, but the Sentix Index, the investor sentiment meter: although it is true that it is still at low levels, it just experience the highest rise since August 2009.
DWS | Quarterly earnings are down year-on-year and 2020 forecasts are being cut further. It’s hope that is driving markets for now.
Juan Luis Manfredi (The Conversation) | The elections in Spain do not represent a second round nor a referendum or a presidential test. They cannot be compared to those of last April 28 despite the strategic over-action of political leaders. The socialist party had too much confidence on their advisors, the CIS public research institute poll and a social media-based campaign.
S. Schindler and J. M. Kanai (The Conversation) | Huge investments in infrastructure are redefining global development, from China’s Belt and Road Initiative to infrastructure development plans from the African Development Bank and the Initiative for the Integration of the Regional Infrastructure of South America.
Christian Gattiker (Julius Baer) | With all the macroeconomic numbers, political news flow and earnings season reporting that has been going on, investors have had their hands full finding time to assess the situation. At the same time, there has been a quite substantial price reaction. So, the easing of the news intensity has brought a pause to investor activity.
Although low growth in Europe is set to persist, the IMF points to a + 1.8% rebound by 2020 justified by the expectations that international trade will rebound and the industry will begin to grow.
There are a few paradoxes in Europe’s biggest economy unquestionable economic slowdown. Labour market remains solid. The last macro data shows a lower deterioration than expected, thanks to the expansion of other neighboring economies such as the French. Also, Berlin malaise has not hit the stock market. The DAX has outperformed other European indexes this year.
The operation reinforces the position of Iberia owner IAG on the Europe-LatAm routes, where it will have a 26% share (vs 19% current). One of the main competitors of IAG in these routes disappears, since Air Europa was the sixth operator Europe-LatAm, and the main one in the hub of Madrid.
Unigestion | October began in the shadow of highly negative expectations but ended on a positive note, as key dangers were avoided. Will this trend continue, which assets will end up flying to the moon, and how can we position ourselves for the final 40 trading days of the year?
Peter Isackson (Fair Observer) | We may soon be obliged to call our beloved fake news “shallowfake news” now that deepfake technology threatens to disrupt our perception of the truth.