Spanish and Italian banks will have access to fewer ECB funds with new TLTROs
Banca March | The ECB announced other limitations on liquidity that will make it difficult for peripheral banks to access the new TLTRO III.
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Spain: workers living in poor households increase
Olga Cantó Sánchez via The Conversation | In many developed countries inequalities in income and economic poverty has increased over the last four decades. Studies of the issue link this progressive increase to the lack of improvements in social policy to correct the growing economic vulnerability of broad sections of the population, which suffer from precarious work linked to temporary and part-time employment and low wages.
Whatever it takes, once again
“There is no probability of deflation, there is very low probability of recession, there are no threats of de-anchoring of inflation expectations,” Mario Draghi said on Thursday. The governor of the European Central Bank announced once again – as he did in March – that it will delay the rate hike at least until 2020 and kept all options open, especially in case economic prospects deteriorate. ECB’s decision is in line with those of other central banks in the world. The Fed has just opened the door to a rate cut, something that Australia and India have already done.
Global growth will not move from 3.2% in 2019, 2012-2016 levels
Macroeconomists at Morgan Stanley have updated their estimates and believe that global growth will remain frozen at this level for the rest of 2019.
Banco Sabadell: there is life beyond TSB, Overweight (O.P. 1.56 eur)
Nuria Álvarez (Renta 4) | Banco Sabadell´s Q119 results showed how the increase in volumes had allowed it to moderate the deterioration in the margin of interests. We come to an objective price of 1.56€/share. Overweight.
FDI projects in Europe fell 4% in 2018, according to EY
Intermoney | In 2018, the number of foreign direct investment (FDI) projects completed in the Old Continent (according to a survey by EY) fell by 4%, even if the falls were greater in the UK and Germany where the fall was about 13% compared to stability in France. However, the countries with the biggest falls were Italy (-63%) and Ireland (-52%).
Almirall: recent revaluation (+46%) reduces potential 13.1%
I. Isardo (Link Securities) | Almirall (ALM) is a vertically integrated international pharmaceutical group which focuses on the purchase, production, storage, commercialisation and mediation in the sale of specialities and pharmaceutical products and of all types of raw materials used in the production of specialities and pharmaceutical products.
Fixed income discounts a recession
Alphavalue | The increasing tensions in the trade war between the US and China have significantly raised prices in the bond market. While in Europe the yield on the Bund has fallen to -0.18%, in the US the T-bond is marking two years low with a TIR of 2.22%.
Mapfre: pressure on profitability, O.P. of 2.96 to 2.78 euros/share
Santander Corporate & Investment | A year after we renewed our coverage of Mapfre (MAP), our opinion remains unchanged. Despite foreseeing a notable operational improvement in 2021, we think that 2019 will probably be a complicated year.
How much does it cost to update pensions in Spain in line with inflation?
Ángel de la Fuente (Fedea) | One of the most controversial aspects of the 2013 reform of the Spanish system of public pensions has been the introduction of a revaluation index (the so-called IRP) which linked the updating of pensions, once triggered, to the financial situation of Social Security, thus abandoning the traditional reference to inflation measured by the consumer price index (CPI). Given the measure´s unpopularity, once inflation recovered after the crisis, it did not take long for it to be provisionally suspended. Currently, there seems to be a broad consensus among the main politically parties to abolish it altogether, returning to the general indexing of pensions to the CPI.