“Join The Dots”
James Alexander via Historinhas | Call me a conspiracy theorist but when three unrelated beasts of the global financial establishment all start talking about the same, previously unfashionable, thing it’s a bit of a coincidence.
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It’s Not All Bad About European Banks
UBS | What’s happening? Banks are trading at distressed PE and P/TNAV multiples. Emerging Market/China/ APAC slowdown and oil going to US$30 are potentially triggering a downturn in the credit cycle and concerns over credit/exposure quality in general.
What the U.S. Campaign Can Teach China About How It Is Viewed
Caixin | The campaign for the U.S. presidential election in November that is well underway is creating uncertainty for Sino-U.S. relations because no key figures in the incumbent administration are running.
Can Scotland Become The Saudi Arabia Of Renewables?
Eusun Cho | Leading up to the Independence Referendum in 2014, one way Scotland sought to differentiate itself from the United Kingdom was through its environmental policy. The Scottish government published a draft interim constitution that separated out the government’s duty to protect the environment in a separate clause.
Multiple Crises Fence In Greece
Nick Malkoutzis via MacroPolis | In its first period in government, between January and September 2015, SYRIZA did not experience any general strikes. Since the September elections there have been three, making the number of such protests one of the few things in Greece that is heading upwards. The other rising indicator is the number of pressing problems Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras faces.
Can Europe Remain Resilient?
UBS | Tracking Europe’s resilience In this report, we aim to shed light on the question we have been asked most frequently in recent weeks: “Can Europe hold up when problems elsewhere are getting worse?” So far, the Eurozone has held up respectably, which we attribute to the fact that European growth is mainly driven by domestic demand, not exports. We believe this should also provide Europe with decent resilience going forward.
European NGDP Shaping Up To Be Dull, But Not Down
James Alexander via Historinhas | Market Monetarists like to look at expectations for NGDP growth, but also need historic data. The paradox of Euro Area market turbulence in spite of strong QE and historically recovering NGDP growth is a puzzle, perhaps 4Q15 NGDP is setting a poor trend like in the US and the UK ?
Draghi Wants The Cake, And Eat It
Francesco Saraceno | Yesterday Mario Draghi has called once more for other policies to support the ECB titanic (and so far vain) effort to lift the eurozone economy out of its state of semi-permanent stagnation. I just have two very quick (related) comments.
Increased Demand For Spanish Property Still Not Reflected In Prices
Spain’s property market is consolidating its recovery in the residential segment, while commercial real estate is clearly in an upward trend. But the fact that Sareb still has a substantial amount of property assets to dispose of, some of them with discounts of over 50%, will keep a lid on prices for the time being.
A Summit To Shape The Future Of The UK And The EU
BARCLAYS | If there is to be a June referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union, an agreement between the EU and the UK on EU reform needs to be found this month. The 18 – 19 February EU summit is widely perceived to be seen as the best opportunity to strike a deal, though the possibility exists that a deal could be reached at a follow – up extraordinary summit, shortly after.