UBS | Our base case forecasts for China’s growth are already below consensus at 6.2% for 2016 and 5.8% for 2017. In this note we study the impact on global economies and assets of a much darker and, in our view, extremely unlikely scenario where China real GDP growth slips to 4%, and nominal growth below 1.5%.
Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | The tight-money crowd is dominant in central-bank staffs, and so firmly (and self-perpetuatingly?) ensconced in such independent government sinecures that they look likely to outlast all rivals. That tight-money enthusiasts preach an increasingly dubious religion or ideology—I have dubbed it Theomonetarism—is unimportant. They have allies in media and academia, curiously always on the right-wing side of things (with some exceptions, such as Ramesh Ponnuru at National Review, James Pethokoukis at AEI, and Scott Sumner, of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University).
The Trade Ministry released figures for foreign investment in Spain in the nine months to September, which showed a 42.9% year-on-year increase to 15.763 billion euros, excluding divestments. This good news coincided with a sharp fall in the IBEX 35 after the result of Sunday’s general elections.
Muhammad Zulfikar Rakhmat | Since their announcement in late 2013 during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Indonesia and Kazakhstan, the New Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road—also known as “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) initiative—have been under intense scrutiny among academia and policymaking circles in China and around the world.
BARCLAYS | We expect the turn of the calendar to bring a brighter tone to the TIPS market as many of the headwinds from 2015 begin to fade. The carry outlook should be positive after February, y/y headline CPI should move up sharply and concerns over a monetary policy error have receded with
the Fed’s dovish hike.
Allan Bollard via Caixin | Concerns about the impact of global trade and growth on environmental protection and sustainability, and vice versa, are longstanding and not without cause. Yet, the advancement of these 21st century priorities is not an either/or proposition. To the contrary, they can and must go hand in hand.
James Alexander via Historinhas | Almost alone among economic commentators we do actually look at Nominal GDP data as it is released. Full Euro Area NGDP data for third quarter 2015 was released this week alongside the 2nd estimate of Real GDP. We have already posted here and here on the good news as three of the “big 4” Euro Area countries, making up 75% of the Euro Area economy, had seen accelerating NGDP. The not so good news is that the little countries saw less acceleration.
The Spanish Treasury sold €2.102 billion worth of bonds at its last auction of the year, meeting its issuance target for 2015 of €139 billion. Its average issuing period in 2015 was 9.1 years, not seen since 2010, and it paid an average yield of 0.87%. This has meant that the average cost of debt in circulation has fallen to a record low of 3.16%.
Iberdrola, Spain’s biggest electricity company, has completed the merger with the US firm UIL and the new group Avantgrid is now trading on the NYSE.
Shares in Iberdrola USA began trading yesterday at 38,75€/share (310 million shares), registering a fall over the day of 6.7% to 36,12€/share in an overall weak session.
BARCLAYS | Spain has undergone considerable structural changes over the past four years. Stronger banks, more competitive firms and a labour market in recovery mode all support a brighter outlook.Ahead of the 20 December general election, we review the near- and medium-term growth and evaluate progress in the labour market, the private- and public-sector deleveraging process and the country’s international competitiveness.