Peter Isackson | The fact-checking is finished, and the polls to determine who won and who lost will soon be wiped from our collective memory. While it lasted, it wasn’t exactly waterboarding but for many it was an unambiguous case of torture. The three debates are over, praise the Lord. America is now entering the brief phase in which it can look back at the weirdest US presidential campaign in history.
Mark Tinker at AXA IM | While investors wait for clarity on US politics, a revisit to our balance sheet approach to economics shows that data on US household wealth and income growth undermines the widespread ‘Great Recession’ meme. US household wealth is up 37% since 2010 and disposable income growth is up 4%.
The quarterly survey of the main EMU banks carried out by the ECB reveals that demand for credit is increasing, although at a slower pace. In its quarterly strategy report for Q4’16, Bankinter has revised its stance on the banking sector from Sell to Neutral. Its top picks in the current environment are BNP, SocGen, BBVA and Bankia.
Janis A. Emmanouilidis and Fabian Zuleeg via Macropolis | After the Brexit vote and the collective failure to predict the impending earthquake and ‘sign of times’, it would be a mistake to carry on as if nothing had happened.
Spain’s main non-financial listed companies are contributing to building a more balanced, flexible and resistant financial system. According to a report prepard by BME’s Research Department, between 2010 and 2015 this group’s shareholder funds grew by 15.4% and its financial debt fell by 12.2%, with a decline of nearly 40% in bank credit and and a parallel 23% rise in fixed income issuances.
Banco Santander has delivered €4.606 BN in attributable profits for the first nine months of 2016, down 22.5% from the same period in 2015 due to the impact of extraordinary items announced in Q2 of this year and Q2 of 2015. Excluding extraordinary items and exchange rate movements, profits grew by 8% year on year to €4.975 BN.
AXA IM | While the magic of Mario Draghi was being fully played out, the economic and financial outlook looks on an improving path to recovery in a post-crisis world. Clouds in this blue –but not entirely clear– sky may emerge from the political sphere.
J. L. M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | Debt is essential for growth. And in fact, the Big Recession, which was sparked by the US subprime crisis, lies in the high level of debt generated during the previous decade known as the Great Moderation. So just as periods of expansion are favourable for building up debt, this has to be adjusted during periods of recession (and depression).
Fernando Rodríguez | One of the main fears of the adverstising industry today seems to be the irruption of a distruptive force similar to Uber or Airbnb. Alfonso Rodés, who has been Deputy CEO of Havas Media Group since 2011, explains why the sector is not so different from the hotel one.
José Benito de Vega | Gas Natural’s shares have been volatile in the last few months due to results which were worse than analysts’ consensus, coupled with a strategic plan which disappointed the market. But the stock price has recovered in the last two months and has outperformed the Ibex 35 index by 7.6% so far this year.