The Corner | April 29, 2015 | Is the eurozone’s private sector finally turning a corner? For the first time in three years, lending to households and firms rose in March (0.1% y-o-y), European Central Bank data showed on Wednesday, partly thanks to the QE iniciative.
ATHENS | April 28, 2015 | By Nick Malkoutzis via MacroPolis | Such has been the impasse between Greece and its lenders over the last three months (add a few more on if you want to look beyond just this government’s shortcomings) that markets reacted with some joy to the news on Monday that one inexperienced economics professor is replacing another as the central figure in Athens’s negotiations with creditors.
April 27, 2015 | UBS | After a period of significant negative earnings growth Italy and Spain earnings show a strong rebound in 2015E. Italy is expected to grow at c. 18% and Spain is expected to yield c. 13% earnings growth.
MADRID | April 25, 2015 | By Ofelia Marín-Lozano | The Euro Stoxx 50 banking index traded at 450 points in 2007. It fell to 70 during the crisis and in the last two years has recovered up to 160 points. In parallel, the profit of large listed Spanish banks fell between 2007 and 2012 to levels around a quarter of the previous highs. Since then it has been recovering, although at the end of 2014 it still was at around 50% of 2007 levels.
The Corner | April 24, 2015 | Greek PM Tsipras is expected to meet with Chancellor Merkel on the Eurogroup sidelines on Friday. The next key focuses will be the IMF payment (€200mn) on 1 May and the Eurogroup meeting on 11 May. But as Barclays analysts remind, lot of worry is already priced; Greek spreads tightened for a second day.
The Corner | April 24, 2015 | The Nasdaq closed on Thursday at an all-time high, surpassing record set 15 years ago, at the very dot com boom. But while US equities have been supported by positive earnings, the current market environment is very different from the late 90s.
BEIJING | April 23, 2015 | Caixin Editorial | The fact that many government officials are sitting idle, waiting for the storm to pass, proves the campaign must continue.
The Corner | April 2015 | Welcome to the heart of earnings season, with one-third of the S&P 500’s firms reporting today –Google, Amazon, Pepsico, Procter & Gamble and Starbucks amonth them. Analysts are pointing that 75% of the companies have beat forecasts, which is better than the 63% average since 1994. “Everyone knows the game: analysts reduce investors’ EPS expectations so firms can beat them,” experts at Link commented.
The Corner | April 23, 2015 | The number of unemployed Spaniards decreased in the first quarter of 2015 by 13,100 people, and reached the figure of 5,444,600, according to the official Employment Active Population survey released on Thursday (23.78% of the active population). “The employment survey seems to be the only one of which the government is not afraid,” famous radio host Carlos Alsina ironized, referring to Mr Rajoy’s cabinet struggle to contain the fallout from a tax investigation against former senior leader of the party and IMF head Rodrigo Rato.
ATHENS | April 22, 2015 | By Nick Malkoutzis via MacroPolis | The Greek government made another payment to the International Monetary Fund earlier this month. This time it was just 450 million euros, a relatively manageable amount compared to the 1.5 billion that Greece had to pay back to the IMF in March. Each of these payments brings relief that a possible default has been avoided, but they also bring greater anxiety that a default is getting closer.