Oil demand in both Emerging Markets (EMs) and Developed Markets (DMs) has risen strongly since 2014, but now the oil market will have to rely on EM consumption, according to a BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report.
BBVA Research | For 2017, the economic cycle is expected to continue correcting the deterioration in Spain’s public accounts, but in a scenario without changes in fiscal policy, the shortfall would decline only to 3.6% of GDP, and would exceed the budgetary target set at 3.1%. Further adjustments will be required to ensure a durable correction.
Fan Ruohong and Chen Na via Caixin | Renewable energy accounted for nearly a quarter of China’s power generation last year, even as wind and solar farms with 39 billion kilowatt-hours of capacity sat idle due to poor planning in the rush to meet Beijing’s ambitious green energy targets, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said.
While acknowledging that Spanish renewable energy and engineering firm Abengoa’s restructuring plan would ease its debt burden, Moody’s has cast doubts over whether it will be successful. Earlier this month, Abengoa reached a debt restructuring deal with its main creditors in an attempt to avoid Spain’s biggest ever bankruptcy. It had been in talks with lenders since November 2015 to reduce its over 9 billion euros debt pile.
Shi Rui, Wang Luyi, Li Rongde via Caixin | The number of provinces with pension spending deficits doubled over the last year, according to a new report, underscoring the urgency for creating a national system that would let wealthier coastal regions subsidize poorer interior ones. Pension funds in six provinces paid out more money than they collected in 2015, up from three regions a year earlier, according to the 2015 China Social Security Development Report compiled by the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security.
John Bruton | The best way to avoid stagnation induced by uncertainty would be for governments in developed countries to produce comprehensive, demographically-based scenarios for the economy over the next 30 years.
Mari Pinardo | Do you remember the summer of 2012, when Spain’s risk premium reached a record high of no less than 638 basis points? Four summers later, this spread seems like it belongs to a completely different country. Since that fateful summer, Spain’s sovereign risk has declined nearly 550 bp and just last week broke the 100 bp threshold. There are basically three reasons which have pushed the risk premium through the 100 bp threshold: a date for Spain’s caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s investiture, the economic policies which have been in place in the Eurozone since April 2015 and the fact that it looks less likely the Fed will raise interest rates in September.
BBVA Research | The demise of the branch has been prophesised for decades, yet it still remains a crucial access point for bank services, valued by most bank customers. However, the question about the future of retail branches looms large as mobile and online banking are becoming ubiquitous, most routine retail banking services that do not involve cash are becoming available remotely, and as customers are ever more comfortable with the new technologies for accessing them.
Natixis AM | Currently, the most important graph is the price of oil. Last week, the oil price was was above its level of August 2015. The oil price has started to fall at mid-2014. Since this moment, the oil price was always below the level it had one year before. This has changed last week. It’s the first time since 2014 that we see such a crossing.
John Bruton | There is no denying that the United Kingdom’s Brexit decision is a blow to the EU. Now, there is a real risk that the remaining 27 EU members will start pursuing national interests at the expense of the common EU interest. If they do, everyone will lose.