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BBVA, top pick in Spanish banking sector for the quarter on possible hike in Mexico guidance

Morgan Stanley | A more positive tone or guidance concerning NII should continue providing support for the Spanish banks. We recall that last week we raised our estimates for NII by an average 5% after incorporating 100 bp of rate hikes vs a previous 50 bp. This should offset the impact of an average 15 bp in CET1 due to the rise in bond yields. Asset quality should remain stable. BBVA…


The NATO Summit: Spain Leads The Way In Organising Congresses

Fernando González Urbaneja | The NATO summit in Madrid has been a success in all respects, except for the recalcitrant naysayers, who have hardly been noticed. The rest of those involved leave the summit with the feeling of a job well done. In terms of content, in terms of the relevant “strategic definition” for the future of the organisation and its enlargement, the results are in line with the best…


Exposure to the US, sensitivity to inflation and protection against the upticks in IRRs:Overweight Ferrovial (T.P. 34 eur/share)

Morgan Stanley | After it being the principal motive for criticism from investors, the recent recovery in traffic on the 407-ETR (-19% vs 2019 en Q2’22; -34% vs 2019 in Q1’22) is driving Ferrovial’s momentum in the short-term. And it also provides support for a return to dividend payments mid-July 2022. In Heathrow, increased traffic, more inflation-linked in the short-term and lower CAPEX more than offset cost expectations. Meanwhile, in the…


Grifols could be negotiating €2 B capital hike; debt rose to 5.4x NFD/Ebitda end-2021

Bankinter | Grifols could be negotiating a 2 billion euros capital hike (c. 18% of its current capitalisation) with various funds. The objective is to cut its debt which is equivalent to 6.9x EBITDA, according to a daily newspaper. Grifols’ share price took a hit this morning on the IBEX 35, falling as much as 13%. Bankinter analyst team’s view: Negative news. If this rumour is correct, the capital increase…


Silvia Iranzo’s resignation leaves Indra with just two independent board members

Renta 4 | Silvia Iranzo tendered her resignation after the cessation of 5 independent Board Members at the AGM held last Thursday. There are now just two independent Board Members, Ignacio Martín and Francisco Javier García Sanz, who could resign very soon. Stock Market Regulator (CNMV) chairman, Rodrigo Buenaventure, described the events at the AGM as “striking and worrying”. He added that the regulator will analyse what took place “rigorously and…

Stock markets

Downward revisions to profits remain

A&G | The Q1 results season was solid on both sides of the Atlantic. And up to now EPS for 2022 has been revised 3% upwards by S&P500 and 11% by the STOXX 600. The weighting of the raw material sectors, particularly in Europe, helped to drive EPS estimates (ex EPS estimates for raw materials they rose only 2% YTD in Europe). We are beginnning to see signs of a…


Risk in estimating banking sector profits is on the rise: Caixabank in top picks

Morgan Stanley | We run over the main themes which are affecting the banking sector at the moment. In terms of balance sheets, the sector has on average 420 bp of excess capital, lending support to dividends. The sector in Europe has greater cash yield (div + buybacks). Exposure to Russia has been decreasing proactively, on average 12% down vs figures pre-Q1 2022. Net interest income has the support of…


Electricity sector: Moncloa looks to impose a charge on companies via decree law. We prefer Iberdrola and Ecoener

Banc Sabadell | The Government is looking for the “quickest” formula to increase tax pressure on the big electricity companies. The most feasible and fast option would be to implement a surcharge on corporate tax via a decree law, with which the the energy firms’ ‘windfall profits’ from the rise in prices would be additionally taxed. Given the technical complexity of this, it is being considered whether to include it…


Grifols’s valuation not attractive at 7x net debt/Ebitda 2022 and weak cash generation; better risk/return with others like Almirall

Morgan Stanley | Grifols (GRF) will hold its Investor Day on June 30. We expect to hear on the following main topics: (i) Estimates on plasma growth (both consensus and ourselves already expect 20-25% growth in 2022, above 2019 levels, and see little chance of increases in the numbers). (ii) Greater visibility on the new launches from Biotest, fibrinogen and IgM which could be delayed. (iii) Leverage (competitive disruption and the smaller contribution…


Greater pressure on US imports in H2’22: Acerinox, from Overweight to Equalweight, T.P. 11,70 to 13,30 euros/share

Morgan Stanley | The market is assuming normalised profits and not extrapolating the extraordinary profits in Q1 2022 due to macroeconomic uncertainties. For the time being, we remain neutral on the sector and are changing our order of preference. Aperam has been the one which has most lagged behind out of all the steel stocks YTD. We believe the recent derating is exaggerated and its exposure to Europe clearly compensates that….