ECB’s bond-buying scheme creates some bout of scarcity on the market, but not necessarily resulting in lower yields. From their temporary lows after the Brexit shock, yields on European government bonds have rebounded in a material way. In the case of 10-year German Bunds, the increase was from -0.2% to +0.3%, while their French counterpart moved from 0.1% to 0.9%.
Demetrios Pogkas via Macropolis | Following British Parliament’s recent backing of the government’s plans to start Brexit talks in the coming months, the exit of Britain from the European Union is a step closer to becoming a reality.
UBS | As partly anticipated by the press, the government has announced overnight a decree (Italian press release) that allows the state to intervene on banks’ liquidity and capital using the €20bn buffer approved by the parliament. We believe this news is positive for the sector.
Julius Baer | Eurozone inflation is approaching its highest level since late 2013 with a December reading on Wednesday at 1.1%. A glance at the core inflation rate, which excludes the volatile food and energy component, delivers the explanation of the recent surge
The UK’s Brexit has to build its own engine from scratch, and decide in which direction it wants the new car to go.
Nick Malkoutzis via Macropolis | The Greek government expects the economy to grow by 2.7 percent and living, working and investing in Greece might seem a more enticing prospect. It is difficult, though, to be anything other than cautious about the prospects of such a turnaround. Firstly, there will have to be a dramatic improvement in several sectors of the economy for this kind of growth to be achieved.
Germany’s enormous trade surplus is causing resentment throughout the rest of Europe, which accounts for a little over half of the annual surplus of more than €263.1 billion. Brussels and the IMF believe there is room to raise salaries and, above all, for a substantial increase in public investment.
BoAML | The ECB has closed many doors in December. The 2015-16 strategy of monetary policy covering for fiscal loosening to facilitate structural reform has changed.We are back to national governments having to navigate through strained fiscal trajectories, leaving very little room for mistakes. Potential growth prospects are not great, not only in the periphery.
“In principal, the euro is a good idea. The aim is to create a big economic space without any monetary barriers, like the US. But a common space implies that member states are prepared to take each other into consideration as far as their economic, financial and wage policies are concerned,” says Peter Bofinger, one of the five ‘wise men’ who make up the German Council of Economic Experts.
Analysts are predicting a positive 2017 for European equities, not least because they are currently undervalued compared with US stocks. But there are risks on the horizon due to political instability (elections in France, Germany and Holland, plus the effects of Trump and Brexit), and uncertainty over the timing of the Fed’s rate hikes.