The management of the UK’s NO to Europe is not simple. In the first place, because the interests of the Brexit camp are contradictory and they have told too many lies which the British people are not going to forget.
The UK turned its back on the European Union’s project. Experts in the UK, Germany, Spain and the US analyse this event that took financial markets by surprise.
Shaun Riordan | The British have voted decisively to leave the EU. The demographics of the referendum suggest that ordinary voters wanted to give the metropolitan elite kicking. For the British, this was their Trump moment. But now begin the months and years of uncertainty. This is not a single event which markets can price in, but rather a process which will continue to drive volatility in currency and equity markets for the foreseeable future.
What seemed impossible some months ago came true: UK has voted to leave the European Union by 51,9 % against 48,1%. World financial markets sank with sterling suffering its biggest fall since 1985 by 10 percent against the dollar leaving the world’s 5th largest economy as well as the European efforts to forge unity completely hit. David Cameron will step down after Brexit vote.
Natixis AM Global | Everyone seems to agree that a Brexit either will create market volatility or already is creating volatility, or both. That’s hardly the news. I think it’s perhaps more interesting to consider the type of volatility created; that is, one with a very uncertain path of interconnected events.
Just as the British Isles can hardly drift away from the continent we call Europe, the UK won’t quit the EU so easily, even if Brexit supporters are victorious in Thursday’s referendum. Agreeing to the terms of a switch-off process would prove agonisingly slow and tricky, taking no less than five years to complete the disentanglement from common discipline.
With one day to go to the referendum, the Brexit flame looks like its going out: the polls have completely turned around since the murder of MP Jo Cox. In the two previous weeks, it looked as if the rise in the polls in favour of the Brexit camp was going to be unstoppable and the markets did not stop showing their concern.
The challenge for German judges was to determine if the OMT can be seen as monetary financing of governments or not, banned in EU treaties or not. The Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe has ruled on Tuesday the ECB’s 2012 bond-buying plan is legal. Ifo President Clemens Fuest has, however, has critisised the OMT ruling. “That is a shame because it is obvious that the OMT programme primarily pursues the fiscal goal of preserving highly indebted states’ access to credit”.
AXA IM | No changes to our asset allocation: Given the prevailing uncertainty we confirm our prudent strategy with an underweight in equities but reiterate our positive view on credit. We also repeat our recommendation to hedge the risk of a possible Brexit
In April 2014, a new law was passed in France, the Florange Law, creating a new power game: the vote of long-term shareholders (two years) automatically accounted for double. Although the Elysium maintained it was about attracting long-term investments and keeping French companies French, the Executive Director of ANSA – the National Association of Joint-Stock Companies – insists that the Florange Law creates obstacles to doing business and criticises the fact it is obligatory.