LONDON | It might prove to be a time bomb for British high streets: one in five people aged between 18 and 44 are still trapped in debt they incurred in to cover consumption last Christmas. Research from Halifax shows that 14% of people are still paying for Christmas either on a credit card, through their overdraft or via a loan. However, fewer of the older generation are in the red…
By Jacobo de Regoyos, in Brussels | The idea that Spain is the real sick man of Europe is catching on again. Suddenly, there is less talk of Greece and Italy. Portugal is going through its particular tunnel in silence. And as for Ireland, almost nobody in the financial media seem to remember its problems. Yet, Spain is back, surrounded but Europe’s ringing alarms. Proof of this is the evolution of the risk premium…
By Tania Suárez, in Madrid | Alberto Matellán, director of Strategy and Macroeconomics at Inverseguros SVB, considers that the effect of the ECB liquidity auctions will fade away and that, in the end, fundamentals will have a bigger influence. In order to stabilise the euro zone situation, is it a reasonable option the simultaneous use of the rescue funds? The bailout funds are a mechanism for ‘buying time’; so, from that viewpoint,…
By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | The United Kingdom learnt this week that in 2011 its economy grew by 0.4%, leaving the level of real GDP at 4.1% below the maximum point reached before the recession. The Bank of England, theoretically, has put in place successive programmes of monetary expansion, but what it has achieved is a rise in inflation up to 5%. Meanwhile, many blame budget cuts for the deficit of…
By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | In this post of economistsview, by Economics professor Mark Thoma, there is a number of charts of several countries and their evolution post-financial crisis. The aim is to probe whether such crises leave temporary or permanent effects. Here I select the one about Spain, where we can see its GDP. In mid-1973, the first oil crisis came in and Spain’s GDP sort of missed its natural path, which never regained. Well, this is old news, many would say: during the…
LONDON | UK growth behaviour turned up worse figures than expected for the final three months of 2011. The Office for National Statistics published Wednesday its revised estimate for gross domestic production growth for last year’s final quarter, showing that the economy contracted by more than previously calculated. Q4 GDP was cut from -0.2% to -0.3%, with most of the downward update being made to household and government expenditure, while the contribution…
By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | There is talk lately in the euro area about the capacity of our firewall, about what sort of volume it should reach in order to frighten the bond markets. This firewall is, of course, the European Financial Stability Facility, the current bailout fund to be replaced in 2013 by the European Stability Mechanism. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has surprised everyone by saying she is willing to…
By Juan Pedro Marín Arrese, in Madrid | Once again Spain is riding the storm. The sharp reduction witnessed in risk premium over the last months is vanishing. A sharp budget deficit coupled with gloomy growth prospects and soaring unemployment rates are melting confidence down. Claims on a rather subdued debt position fail to impress markets. Fear that financial situation might end up in a plight is deeply ingrained. Worries…
By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | Central bankers are incapable muppets covered with majestic pomp. The crisis has unveiled their naked, sad truth but what keeps them on their feet is that most people do not bother to properly scrutinise what they do and what they say. Crisis Maven is a blog devoted to analysing the words and actions of the Bank of England. It is a very curious case, that of…
Another week left behind us and another wave of alarms about euro zone banks being de facto rescued by the European Central Bank’s long-term liquidity operations or expecting European Financial Stability Fund capital injections. Sí, Spain and its financial sector were back in the headlines, somehow accompanied by Portugal and Italy in a variety of doom-and-gloom combinations, with what some in Madrid see as self-fulfilling forecasts. At The Corner we say shooting the…