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In Europe 5th April 2012

Easter read (1) | Two years digging an empty grave for the euro

Many economists and the Anglo-Saxon financial gurus have been killing the euro month after month since early 2010. But, even if their doomsday predictions have miserably failed so far, their negative influence over the markets can not be neglected. By Fernando Barciela, in Madrid | In one of his recent and terrifying articles  about the euro and the sovereign debt crisis in the Financial Times, ‘There is no Spanish siesta for the eurozone‘, Wolfgang Münchau found that many…

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In Europe 4th April 2012

Chancellor Merkel should remember that Spain is not Germany

FRANKFORT | That is the view from Berlin: the biggest problem Germany contends with is Europe. And this is so particularly because of this fact, more than 17 million people are unemployed in the euro zone. But while in Austria the unemployment rises to 4.2% and 5.7% in Germany, the Spanish labour market suffers the tragedy of jobless figures that come to 23.6%. And there is no prospect of improvement. The problem is…

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In Europe 3rd April 2012

Écouter! French PMI drops most since November 2008

MADRID | Afi analysts drew today investors’ attention to the widening divergence between the manufacturing cycle of the European Monetary Union and other economic blocs. PMI figures of the manufacturing sector fell again in the euro zone’s aggregate indicator, slipping into activity contraction levels. Apart from China’s, the rest of PMI numbers are either consolidated or approach the expansion area. At Afi, experts forecast a EMU GDP downward correction of 0.1pc…

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In Europe 2nd April 2012

UK high streets need government funds as customers still paying for Christmas

LONDON | It might prove to be a time bomb for British high streets: one in five people aged between 18 and 44 are still trapped in debt they incurred in to cover consumption last Christmas. Research from Halifax shows that 14% of people are still paying for Christmas either on a credit card, through their overdraft or via a loan. However, fewer of the older generation are in the red…

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In Europe 2nd April 2012

Italy or Spain? An off-the-record confusion

By Jacobo de Regoyos, in Brussels | The idea that Spain is the real sick man of Europe is catching on again. Suddenly, there is less talk of Greece and Italy. Portugal is going through its particular tunnel in silence. And as for Ireland, almost nobody in the financial media seem to remember its problems. Yet, Spain is back, surrounded but Europe’s ringing alarms. Proof of this is the evolution of the risk premium…

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In Europe 30th March 2012

“The ECB liquidity has been more stabilising than the bailout funds”

By Tania Suárez, in Madrid | Alberto Matellán, director of Strategy and Macroeconomics at Inverseguros SVB, considers that the effect of the ECB liquidity auctions will fade away and that, in the end, fundamentals will have a bigger influence. In order to stabilise the euro zone situation, is it a reasonable option the simultaneous use of the rescue funds? The bailout funds are a mechanism for ‘buying time’; so, from that viewpoint,…

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In Europe 29th March 2012

Tough: Britain is experiencing the worst recovery in its history

By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | The United Kingdom learnt this week that in 2011 its economy grew by 0.4%, leaving the level of real GDP at 4.1% below the maximum point reached before the recession. The Bank of England, theoretically, has put in place successive programmes of monetary expansion, but what it has achieved is a rise in inflation up to 5%. Meanwhile, many blame budget cuts for the deficit of…

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In Europe 29th March 2012

Spain is not Sweden, but it could have been

By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | In this post of economistsview, by Economics professor Mark Thoma, there is a number of charts of several countries and their evolution post-financial crisis. The aim is to probe whether such crises leave temporary or permanent effects. Here I select the one about Spain, where we can see its GDP. In mid-1973, the first oil crisis came in and Spain’s GDP sort of missed its natural path, which never regained. Well, this is old news, many would say: during the…

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In Europe 28th March 2012

UK economy approaches technical recession with -0.3% 4Q 2011 GDP

LONDON | UK growth behaviour turned up worse figures than expected for the final three months of 2011. The Office for National Statistics published Wednesday its revised estimate for gross domestic production growth for last year’s final quarter, showing that the economy contracted by more than previously calculated. Q4 GDP was cut from -0.2% to -0.3%, with most of the downward update being made to household and government expenditure, while the contribution…

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In Europe 28th March 2012

Bailouts without growth for the euro zone

By Luis Arroyo, in Madrid | There is talk lately in the euro area about the capacity of our firewall, about what sort of volume it should reach in order to frighten the bond markets. This firewall is, of course, the European Financial Stability Facility, the current bailout fund to be replaced in 2013 by the European Stability Mechanism. German Chancellor Angela Merkel has surprised everyone by saying she is willing to…