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In Europe 21st November 2023

Takeover bid again highlights possibility of corporate operation in Talgo, subject to Trilantic’s approval

Banc Sabadell announced last week, reacting to a publication in the press, that it had received a preliminary expression of potential interest in launching a takeover bid for 100% of the company’s shares by a Hungarian business group (a family holding company according to the press) at a price of €5/share, which would represent a premium of +28% over the previous day’s closing price (+43% over the average of the…

In Europe 16th November 2023

Brussels revises GDP growth downwards, eurozone industrial production falters

Bankinter: The European Commission has revised its growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024. downwards GDP: +0.6% and +1.2% in 2023 and 2024 vs. +0.8% and +1.3% previously. CPI: +5.6% and +3.2% vs. 5.6% and +2.9% previously. (ii) Industrial Production showed weakness again in September: -6.9% vs. -6.3% expected and -5.1% previously. Assessment: The downward revision by the European Commission shows the slowdown of the economy registered by some macroeconomic indicators…

European economy 16th November 2023

Profit margins provide sufficient cushion for prices to rise less than wages; ECB to wait for wage deceleration before starting cuts

Morgan Stanley: Eurozone inflation is clearly on a downward trajectory. After October’s 2.9%Y in October, we expect inflation to be 2.4%Y in 2024 and 2.0%Y in 2025 and although the main risk is the pass-through of wage growth to prices we believe that profit margins provide a sufficient cushion to keep prices from rising as much as wages. However, inflation will continue to be exposed to gas price increases as…

In Europe 16th November 2023

Germany, Denmark and Spain projects put Talgo’s 3Q23 revenues higher than 3Q22’s

Norbolsa| The company yesterday presented its 3Q23 results, with revenues of €470.3m, which were +34% higher than in 3Q22, thanks to projects in Germany, Denmark and Spain. EBITDA margin grew by +68% to EUR 64.5m versus 3Q22 to reach 13.7% (10.9% previous), thanks to the implementation of the risk mitigation measures being carried out. Finally, the company improved margin guidance to 13% (12% previous), slightly increased DFN/EBITDA ratio to 2.5x…

In Europe 16th November 2023

Germany’s current account surplus reaches €28.1 billion in September compared to €12.5 billion in same month last year

Link Securities| Germany’s central bank, the Bundesbank, yesterday published that Germany’s current account surplus reached €28.1 billion in September compared to €12.5 billion in the same month last year. The goods surplus increased to €22.5bn from €11.1bn in September 2022, as imports fell by 18.6% and exports by a noticeably smaller 9.2%. For its part, the primary income surplus increased to €15.8 billion from €12.4 billion in the same month…

European economy, In Europe 15th November 2023

Eurozone GDP down 0.1%, employment up 0.3% in Q3

CdM| In the third quarter of 2023, seasonally adjusted GDP declined by 0.1% in the euro area and remained stable in the EU, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate released by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the second quarter of 2023, GDP had grown by 0.2 per cent in the euro area and remained stable in the EU. Compared with the same…

In Europe 14th November 2023

Airbus close to signing 350-aircraft order with Turkish Airlines

Banc Sabadell| According to Bloomberg, Airbus (AIR) is close to closing an order with Turkish Airlines for about 350 aircraft (4% of the current backlog) of which 250 would correspond to the A321 model, and the remaining 100 to the A350 model (“widebody” model). Assessment: Positive news, if confirmed, as this is a significant order that demonstrates the current strong demand for aircraft. We particularly highlight the order for close…

In Europe 13th November 2023

ECB’s Bank Lending Survey clearly shows contraction in credit supply and demand

Peter Goves (MFS Investment Management)| We believe ECB policy rates have most likely peaked for this cycle. This argument is based on three pillars: growth dynamics, the inflation outlook and what the ECB itself is communicating. On growth, the euro area is currently operating in a quasi-recessionary environment. Although we don’t technically have two quarters of negative GDP prints, Q3 growth was -0.1% and below ECB expectations. The vast majority…

European economy 11th November 2023

Germany’s inflation falls to 2021 lows after moderating to 3.8% in October; core stands at 4.3%.

CdM | Germany’s inflation stood at August 2021 lows after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) moderated to 3.8% in October, in line with the initial and consensus estimate, which is seven tenths lower than the previous month, according to confirmed data from Destatis, the federal statistics office. Compared with the previous month, German prices were unchanged in October. In particular, prices for energy products stood at 3.2 per cent, below…

European economy 8th November 2023

Germany’s new drop in industrial production, down -1.4% in September, again fuels fears of protracted recession

Bankinter : Industrial Production falls more than expected in September and remains in negative territory for the fifth consecutive month. Industrial Production (September) falls -1.4% m/m against -0.1% expected and -0.1% previous (revised from -0.2%). By items: Manufacturing & Mining -1.7%; Intermediate Goods -1.9%; Capital Goods -0.2%; Consumer Goods (-4.9%); Energy -1.7%; Construction 0%. Assessment: Again, another bad Industrial Production reading, one that will once again fuel fears of a…

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