Link Securities | According to elEconomista.es on Tuesday, the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde, said in her opening speech at the central bank forum in Sintra (Portugal) that the ECB will probably not be able to declare the end of its historic cycle of interest rate hikes any time soon. In that sense, Lagarde said that it is unlikely that in the near future the central…
The German 2s10s curve has inverted to two-decade highs, surpassing the levels seen in March. Macro continues to slow and Morgan Stanley (MS) analysts lower their growth forecasts for Europe with the German IFO contracting, for the second consecutive month more than expected by both consensus and Morgan Stanley… and in line with last Friday’s disappointing European PMIs. The bad data is again concentrated in the deterioration of the expectations…
Banc Sabadell| Talgo (TLGO) announced on Friday at the opening that the Danish parliament has approved the extension of the contract with DSB for the supply of eight additional intercity Talgo 230 trainsets (and fleet parts for their maintenance) for a sum of €184 million (~4% of the portfolio including the DB contract and Egypt). Assessment: Positive news although of little impact given that the contract was already announced and…
The CEO of IAG, Luis Gallego, said on Monday that the integration of the Portuguese TAP into the holding company “could be an opportunity” depending on the conditions established by the Portuguese government for its privatisation. Gallego pointed out that it could benefit the group with the connections that TAP has with Brazil and parts of Africa, where IAG currently has no presence. According to Gallego, the incorporation of new…
Santander Corporate & Investment: This Wednesday European banks are to repay €477mm of TLTROs which will reduce excess liquidity in the system materially and funding via TLTROs to only around €600mm at a delicate time of acceleration of the QT programme from 1 July and with market sentiment further dampened after the ECB/FOMC and the flash PMIs plunge on Friday. For Italian banks, a geography where the gap excess liquidity…
BancaMarch| Brussels is asking EU countries for €16 billion as a prelude to the European corporate tax. According to Expansión, the European Commission will require EU countries to make a temporary contribution of 0.5% of their companies’ profits from 2024 and until they agree on a common tax on companies to replace it. The aim of the measure is to strengthen the EU’s coffers in order to be able to…
Banca March: May’s inflation data has precipitated a sharp move in UK official rate expectations that put the UK’s terminal rate at 6% and assigns a 40% probability that the Bank of England would launch a 50bp “jumbo” hike at Thursday’s meeting, which would raise official rates to 5%. The concern stems from the rise in core inflation to 7.1% and the eleventh consecutive upward surprise in headline inflation to…
Morgan Stanley| Management hosted a Business Update on Wednesday during the Paris Air Show, focusing on supply chains and production ramp-up. Specifically, Ross Law (analyst) estimates that during the event, the company has received orders for 846 aircraft, which according to the Airbus CEO, brings the total order backlog to 8,000 units, equivalent to 10 years of production at the current rate. With this, Ross highlights that the current strong…
Link Securities| The German Federal Statistical Office yesterday published that Germany’s producer price index (PPI) fell 1.4% in May compared to April, significantly more than the 0.7% decline expected by FactSet’s consensus of analysts. On a year-on-year-year basis, Germany’s PPI rebounded by 1.0% in the month of May (4.1% in April), a reading that was also well below the 1.7% increase expected by analysts. May’s year-on-year PPI growth rate was…
Banca March: The European Union is about to confirm that it is raising its renewable energy consumption target from 22% to 42.5% by 2030, a commitment that is expected to boost investment in clean generation sources. The agreement, which updates the current legal target of 32%, is based on a political negotiation concluded in the spring and although it is not yet final, as it will also have to be…