Círculo de Empresarios | The Bank of Spain forecasts that the Spanish economy will embark on a gradual path of deceleration until 2022, and therefore maintains its 2% and 1.7% annual growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, respectively.
Oriol Carreras and Eduard Llorens i Jimeno (CaixaBank Research) | All the indicators suggest that next year will be defined by the same key elements. As we can see in the first chart, to the extent that global growth, and that of the euro area in particular, remains contained, we do not expect to see a significant surge in exports. Therefore, the foreign sector will continue to provide very modest contributions to growth. Moreover, the global environment will remain a source of risk.
After issuing €1,62 bn at 5 years, €1,31bn at 10 years and €510 M at 30 years, the Treasury ruled out any further debt issuances in 2019. On the other hand, the net issuance amounted to almost € 20 bn, the lowest figure since 2007.
Spanish real estate still has growth to deliver. Regardless of global economic slowdown, Brexit or trade tensions, we think the country’s competitive labour market should support one of the highest economic growth rates in Europe. Spanish GDP should grow at 1.7% pa over the next three years vs 1.1% in the Euro area, according to BofA economists.
BBVA Research | At the end of the year, the Spanish economy could register three quarters in a row of 0.4% growth t / t, below the growth observed since the beginning of the recovery (0.7% t / t, on average). In this context there is a stabilization of job creation, a volatile composition of demand and low inflation.
Círculo de Empresarios | The Bank of Spain forecasts that the Spanish economy will embark on a gradual path of deceleration until 2022, and therefore maintains its 2% and 1.7% annual growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, respectively. GDP growth rests on the back of positive evolution of domestic demand owing to the healthy wealth situation of households and companies, and a monetary policy that is accommodative. In contrast, the external sector loses dynamism as growth in exports is less than imports in an environment rife with global uncertainty.
Joan Tapia | The latest data indicate that the economic slowdown in Spain is showing some signs of reversing. That is, the slowdown is slowing down and that the economic situation in the coming months may be somewhat better than expected by some of the most pessimistic analysts. The misfortune is that this slight recovery of economic optimism has no correspondence in the political field, as the result of the 10-N elections and the subsequent movements of the parties indicate a very difficult governance.
The bank debt of families and non-profit institutions resident in Spain fell 0.25% in October compared to the previous month, with a reduction of 1.728 billion euros, to 702.036 billion euros, which records its level lowest since February 2018.
Foreign companies’ assessment of the business climate in Spain has remained unchanged since last year. Specifically, the business climate in Spain scored an average of three out of five, according to the “Barometer of the Business Climate in Spain from the Foreign Investor’s Perspective”, prepared jointly by ICEX-Invest in Spain, Foreign Multinationals for the Spain brand and the IESE.
C. Ocaña and R. Torres (Funcas) | After several years of recovery, Spain housing market shows signs of deceleration, opening a debate about whether this is the prelude to the outbreak of a new bubble. At present there is no real estate bubble in Spain and, therefore, the effects of the slowdown in the real estate sector itself and in the rest of the economy will be limited. In other words, in the current scenario, an adjustment can be expected but not a “flat tire” of the real estate sector.