Fernando G. Urbaneja | An unprecedented tornado of elections has fallen on Spain in 2019. In the short space of four weeks Spaniards can place their papers with their electoral preferences in at least 5 urns, to elect the Congress, Senate, European Parliament, Townhalls and a good part of the regional parliaments. Spring superelections which will overturn a good part of the structure of the state.
Bankinter | The sale of houses in Spain fell in January (-0.2% yoy). It is the first drop in the last 11 months and shows a slowdown (from +3.8% in December, +2.8% in November, +15% in October). It is the third time in three years the rate has been negative.
Eduardo Moyano Estrada via The Conversation | Spain is an urban country, as shown by the fact that more than 80% of the population live in less than 20% of the territory (and four out of five Spaniards live in municipalities of the more than 30,000 inhabitants). But it also has an extensive rural space, given that around 80% of its territory has an average demographic density of 18.4 persons/km2, with more than half od its municipalities in serious risk of depopulation.
One day before the General Shareholders’ Meeting, the former president of BBVA announced on Thursday by letter that he is temporarily leaving the positions that bind him to the entity (he is the honorary president of the bank and the Foundation) until the end of the investigation of the Villarejo case, in which BBVA is related to a supposed espionage of politicians, businessmen and journalists when González occupied the presidency.
Luis Alcaide | Spanish government with its parliamentary minority has administered, but without exposing itself to dangerous risks difficult. It has pushed its budget, with its own proposals, knowing it will not be approved. But as Groucho Marx said “here is another one”. The increase in the minimum wage has already shown their socialist colours. We need to continue to take care of the economy. It is not that easy, but not that hard either.
Yann Le Pallec, global head of ratings at S&P Global Rating (S&P), says that the ratings agency will upgrade Spain this month if current trends are maintained. The executive said that Spain’s current rating is A- with a positive perspective, which implies that if certain conditions are fulfilled there will be a rise in credit rating.
According to FEDEA, the total expenditure on R&D grew 6% compared to 2016. Companies increased their expenditure on R&D by 8% and the public sector slightly more than 2%. These growth rates recall those of the years before the crisis but are still not sufficient for Spain to escape the small group of European countries who still have not recovered pre-crisis levels of R&D spending.
In 2018, 22.3 M employment contracts were signed in Spain. This record number marks a sixth year of sustained increases, as well as a significant rise over the 17.8 M contracts signed in 2007. Despite the fact that 21% more contracts were signed compared to before the financial crisis, the number of people with Social Security stood at 19 M at the end of 2018, a level very similar to that of 2007 (19.4 million). Analysts at Caixabank Research explains next what is the reason for this contrast.
One of the candidates to replace Merkel proposed fiscally incentivising investment in stocks, as a complement to the public pension. The idea got little support in a country with a savings rate of 10% but an enormous aversion to risk, where variable income seems reserved for the highest income.
Growth in Spain remains strong but the country can withstand some political instability before the results of snap elections that will be held on 28 April. As reported by analysts at Julius Baer, “polls are indicating a hung parliament, but shifts in party policies could enable both a centre-left and a centre-right coalition government to be formed.” The spread difference between Portugal’s and Spain’s 10-year government bonds currently stands at 30 basis points.