Bankinter | The ECB has called attention to the evolution of Spain’s fiscal deficit in its Annual Report for 2018, published this week. The impact on the country’s risk premium, currently around 120 b.p. (IRR 1.12%/1.14%), will probably be negative.
S&P has reduced its estimate of GDP for the euro area by 5 tenths in 2019 from +1.6% in November to +1.1%. In 2020 it forecasts a growth of +1.4% (vs. +1.6% previous), +1.4% also in 2021 (vs +1.5% previous) and +1.3% in 2022.
Emilio José González González via The Conversation | How many immigrants does Spain need to be able to pay the pensions? To put a figure is easy. The IMF, in an analysis entitled Challenges Beyond Financial Sustainability, concludes that 5.5 million immigrants will be needed between now and 2050, equivalent to 21% of the current population.
According to the Ministry of Economy, the increases in FDI result from Spain´s continued above Eurozone average economic growth. At the same time, the figures for Catalonia continued to decline (-12% in the same period).
William Chislett via Real Instituto Elcano | Spain is a happier nation than it was a year ago, according to the World Happiness Report (WHR), produced by the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), a global initiative for the United Nations, and based on Gallup surveys between 2016 and 2018.
Fernando G. Urbaneja | An unprecedented tornado of elections has fallen on Spain in 2019. In the short space of four weeks Spaniards can place their papers with their electoral preferences in at least 5 urns, to elect the Congress, Senate, European Parliament, Townhalls and a good part of the regional parliaments. Spring superelections which will overturn a good part of the structure of the state.
Bankinter | The sale of houses in Spain fell in January (-0.2% yoy). It is the first drop in the last 11 months and shows a slowdown (from +3.8% in December, +2.8% in November, +15% in October). It is the third time in three years the rate has been negative.
Eduardo Moyano Estrada via The Conversation | Spain is an urban country, as shown by the fact that more than 80% of the population live in less than 20% of the territory (and four out of five Spaniards live in municipalities of the more than 30,000 inhabitants). But it also has an extensive rural space, given that around 80% of its territory has an average demographic density of 18.4 persons/km2, with more than half od its municipalities in serious risk of depopulation.
One day before the General Shareholders’ Meeting, the former president of BBVA announced on Thursday by letter that he is temporarily leaving the positions that bind him to the entity (he is the honorary president of the bank and the Foundation) until the end of the investigation of the Villarejo case, in which BBVA is related to a supposed espionage of politicians, businessmen and journalists when González occupied the presidency.
Luis Alcaide | Spanish government with its parliamentary minority has administered, but without exposing itself to dangerous risks difficult. It has pushed its budget, with its own proposals, knowing it will not be approved. But as Groucho Marx said “here is another one”. The increase in the minimum wage has already shown their socialist colours. We need to continue to take care of the economy. It is not that easy, but not that hard either.