The January update of the IMF’s “World Economic Outlook”, published in October, confirms that Spain will recover this year all the GDP growth lost during the economic crisis, exceeding in 2017 for the first time the volume of growth in 2008.
Last week China’s trade data for December disappointed on the export side, with exports declining 6.1% y/y in USD terms. Imports were around expectations with a 3.1% rise.
A review on fixed income market cannot omit president-elect Trump’s first press conference of the year, although it contained little substance for investors trying to understand what the economic priorities of the new Administration will be.
J.L. M. Campuzano (Spanish Banking Association) | The World Bank is predicting an acceleration in global growth rate for this year of up to 2.7%, after the lowest level of growth in the wake of the Crisis estimated last year. In general, the latest global economic data is fuelling optimism.
Inflation is back. The first stage has been the rise in oil prices from $30 to $50 per barrel, which is already being passed on to the consumer economies. Too much inflation is a bad thing: it creates rising expectations and people try to anticipate them. But too little is even worse. The 2008 crisis caused a very costly deflation. .
María Fernanda Tapia Cortés | Mexico starts 2017 with two trending topics: the announcement of new gasoline prices and protests inspired by the adjustment period in the form of a 20% price hike. While Mexicans are filled with outrage, moguls anticipate the potential earnings that this represents. The question is: Who will the energy reform benefit?
Indonesia has announced that it is going to ease up its export ban on nickel ore. It appears it is going to allow nickel miners to export as long as they dedicate at least 30 percent of their smelter capacity to processing low-grade ore, defined as below 1.7 percent nickel. For Spanish Acerinox, as well as the rest of the stainless steel sector, this news is very negative as it will put downwards pressure on nickel prices.
The key point about the Fed’s exit strategy is not so much the pace of rate hikes which will be very gradual or just gradual, but also how it will reconfigure its balance.
Julius Baer Research | Oil’s push above USD 58 per barrel on the first trading day of the year seemingly only was a temporary burst of energy. The market’s focus is on quota compliance as the oil producers must now walk the talk of supply cuts. We remain sceptical that the supply deal will have a material impact, swiftly erase surplus supplies and provide lasting support to prices.
In general terms, leaving aside certain nuances, the short-term outlook in the US will be such that it will allow the Fed to raise interest rates, which will be taken as a positive symptom. But on the downside, this will mean higher funding costs. So issuers have already begun to anticípate these rate hikes which will make it difficult for them to match the debt issuance volumes of 2016.