What now for Abe third time around?
TOKYO | By Nobumasa Akiyama Via Caixin | Deeds not words will determine whether Shinzo Abe will be a success in 2015, a year full of challenges.
In the World
Are falling oil prices an opportunity for Asia?
How will the recent plunge in oil prices affect Asian countries?
Deflation: Economists sink into dementia
Guest post by Benjamin Cole via Historinhas | What to make of the recent dust-up around Rogoff World, in which the U.S. would pursue a cashless, deflationary federal police state characterized by negative interest rates? Harvard don Ken Rogoff has suggested this is the best macroeconomic option going forward. My take-away? The economics profession is deep into dementia.
The curse of cheap oil
WASHINGTON | By Pablo Pardo | Why do they call Economics the Dismal Science? In theory, because it is about using limited resources to satisfy unlimited needs. In practice because, no matter what, everything is always bad in Economics. Case in point: cheap oil.
The Federal Reserve was all set for mid-2015. Is that still true?
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | On December 2 2014, Stanley Fisher gave an interview (video) to Jon Hilsenrath of the WSJ. It was notable because Fischer had mostly been quiet, except for a couple of Lectures (not speeches) – here, here – given in international forums. Six or seven weeks later, is that interview still pertinent? At that point oil prices stood at close to USD 70 and now they stand below 50. Mostly as a reflection of low global AD (here).The global scenario is changing quickly, and not for the better. So maybe Fischer is not so sure anymore. [Image:WSJ]
Trichet is “faultless”
SAO PAULO | By Marcus Nunes via Historinhas | In an interview he dwells on financial fragility and the Great Recession was an “inconvenience”: “Of course, we had to cope with a number of additional challenges on top of the grave and immediate threat of the collapse of the system. We had also to cope with the Great Recession, but very fortunately not the Great Depression that we would have had had we not acted swiftly and boldly at the start of the crisis. Even so, the Great Recession added to the difficulty.”
How are investors positioned and where is money flowing?
ZURICH | UBS analysts | ETF flows continue to reward positive economic data from the US with spectacular equity inflows for the second consecutive month. Europe was once again a laggard in both economic terms and in flows: Germany, Spain, Italy, and France, saw net outflows in December due to a combination of growth, Grexit and deflation concerns.
Investors sound the alarm after oil collapse
MADRID | By Francisco López | The strong fall in the oil price may be a blessing for GDP growth in some countries such as Spain, but it is starting to get on investors’ nerves due to the devastating impact that it could have on some emerging countries. The price of the Brent barrel plummeted by more than 5% on Monday, registering at $48 (i.e. the lowest level for six years).
China: Winners and losers of faster reforms in 2015
ZURICH | UBS analysts | We expect reforms to accelerate in 2015. As the government moves toward systematic “rule by law” and the property downturn persists, more space will open up and pressure increase for economic reforms to accelerate. We see three themes for China’s reforms this year: growth support, risk containment and rebalancing. In other words, reforms that can unlock new sources of growth and bolster domestic demand, reduce economic and financial risks, or diminish/remove structural imbalances should advance most.
Where now for the euro?
MADRID | By Sean Duffy | The euro hit a fresh nine-year low on Thursday after the publication of a letter from Mario Draghi which indicated that the central bank would likely purchase sovereign bonds in a bid to ward off a deflationary bout which is holding back growth on the continent. The euro was trading at $ 1.17540 against the greenback on Thursday. Friday saw a recovery to $ 1.18177. The single currency is currently hovering around levels seen back when the currency was launched in 2002, at €1.16.