Gregor MA Hirt (Global CIO Multi Asset Allianz GI) | A sudden flare-up in violence between Israel and Hamas has left more than 1,500 people dead and re-ignitedthe longest-running conflict in the Middle East. The resulting geopolitical uncertainty may spark higher oil prices. Palestinian Islamist group Hamas on 7 October launched the largest military assault on Israel in decades, killing hundreds of Israelis and sparking retaliatory air strikes on Gaza…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | During her State of the Union address on 13 September, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the European Union would undertake an anti-subsidy probe against the Chinese electric vehicle (EV) sector. This signalled a major step in the EU’s shift to a more aggressive trade defence against China and raises the question of how China will react, given the importance of the…
Banc Sabadell : In the context of the new scenario of armed conflict in Israel, it should be noted that CAF (CAF) has two projects underway in the country. These are the Jerusalem light rail project and the Purple Line project of the Tel Aviv light rail, which together account for ~7% of the company’s portfolio. Assessment: News with a negative bias although with limited impact for now as the…
BancaMarch : The Bank of Israel has announced the sale of $30bn of foreign currency – 5.5% of Israeli GDP – and an additional $15bn in swaps. The shekel-dollar pairing is down -2% to 3.92 in the wake of the Gaza attack, values not seen in almost eight years. The Israeli central bank plans to intervene in the markets in order to provide liquidity and stabilise the currency. Since 2008,…
Link Securities | Cinco Días reports on Thursday that the OPEC+ CMCM (before JMMC) monitoring committee confirmed in a telematic meeting chaired by Saudi Energy Minister Abdelaziz bin Salman and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak that the steep oil supply cuts being implemented by both Saudi Arabia and Russia together with OPEC+ will be maintained until at least 31 December this year. “The committee will continue to closely assess…
Banca March: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is considering increasing China’s voting rights to bring its share in the fund in line with its position in the global economy. Each country contributes a quota based on various factors reflecting economic positioning relative to the world economy. This quota designates the amount each country has to pay into the fund, as well as its voting rights. Currently, the Asian giant has…
Banc Sabadell| Iberdrola (IBE) and GIC, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, have closed the €465 million (BRL 2.4 billion ) deal to develop new electricity transmission networks that they had announced in April and which has already been approved by the National Electricity Agency (ANEEL) and the Administrative Council for Economic Defence (CADE). Both companies will invest in operational transmission assets in Jalapao, Santa Luzia, Dourados, Atibaia, Biguacu, Sobral, Narandiba and…
Banca March: The World Bank has updated its economic forecasts for East Asia and the Pacific in its October report. Although the regions in question have shown a recovery from pandemic levels, the association warns of slow development. While the outlook for China’s output rates in 2023 is maintained (5.1%), those for next year 2024 are down from April’s estimates (4.8% to 4.4%). Likewise, the contagion effect of the Chinese…
Banca March| In line with international trade, the South American countries are pushing to speed up the signing of a treaty that has been dragging on for twenty years of negotiations and four years of delay since the 2019 agreement was made. The justification for the wait is due to the environmental commitments that European countries are demanding from South American countries. If the signing does not take place on…
Banca March: The most recent US economic data are disappointing. Consumer confidence fell more than expected in September, falling to 103 from 108.7 (which was revised upwards). Moreover, this development was due to an improvement in the current situation reading, but the expectations component deteriorated sharply to 73.7 from 83.3 previously. On the other hand, in the real estate sector, sales are falling, but prices are holding up. In August,…