BancaMarch: US SME confidence improves. The NFIB index beat expectations and rose in July to 91.9 from the previous 91.9 and above the 91.3 expected. With this new advance, confidence was at an eight-month high, but still at very low levels and far from its historical average (98.1). Among the components, we highlight that 25% of the small companies surveyed indicate that they intend to raise their selling prices, the…
Norbolsa| Brent oil prices remain at their highest levels in recent weeks, supported by expectations of lower US rates, further production cuts by OPEC+, following the reductions already announced by Russia and Saudi Arabia, and hopes for a recovery in demand in China.
Ulrike Kastens (DWS) | The Bank of England raised interest rates yesterday by another 25 basis points to 5.25%, the highest level in 15 years. The key factors were labour market tightness and stronger wage growth, while developments in base rates and services prices are in line with the central bank’s expectations. Overall, the message of today’s press release is much more balanced than that of the previous meeting in…
Norbolsa| Brent continues to rise this week to over $86/B, at the same time that US oil inventory data fell by 15.4 million barrels (1.37 million expected), according to sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures (official data due out today), marking the largest drop in crude inventories since 1982. Oil prices are expected to rise further in the coming months following Saudi Arabia’s reduction of 1m/b per day from July.
BancaMarch: China responds to the United States. As one of the world’s leading producers, China is imposing new export controls on drones and related equipment. Yesterday, the Chinese government announced new controls that will take effect from September.
Bankinter: Manufacturing PMI (July) 49.3 vs. 48.9 estimated and 49 previous. (ii) Non-Manufacturing PMI (July) 51.5 vs. 53.0 estimated and 53.2 previous. (iii) Composite PMI (July) 51.1 vs. 52.3 previous Assessment: Positive data. Especially because a recovery in the Manufacturing sector, the most affected can be seen. It is still in the contraction zone but it is close to the 50 level. The Services Sector, although it remains in the…
Bankinter | The Fed met expectations and raised its benchmark interest rate (Fed Funds) by +25 b.p. to 5.25%/5.50% on Wednesday, leaving the door open for more hikes. Assessment: The most relevant thing is that it leaves open the possibility of a new tightening in September by maintaining a data-dependent approach. The most relevant aspect of this meeting was Powell’s message. In the dot plot of the June meeting, the…
Alphavalue / Divacons | A loss of $5.5 trillion since April 2020 is raising risks to the US economy. A sharp drop in Americans’ personal savings threatens to affect consumer spending, which has so far helped the US economy withstand recession warnings. The data comes from a study released on Tuesday by data, economics and technology company Barchart, drawing on data from Bloomberg. Earlier, another report by Oxford Economics predicted…
Morgan Stanley: Analyst Mike Wilson points out that “disinflation” is set to become a headwind in the US. 2023 has been a year of high assessments with falling inflation and cost savings. However, many positive factors are reversing next year. Fiscal stimulus is largely going to disappear, the savings glut is ending and student loan repayments return in October for 27m Americans. Disinflation is now affecting sales and investors will…
Bankinter: The Nasdaq will start trading this Monday with the new adjustment of the weights of its components. The Nasdaq can perform a special rebalancing when the aggregate weighting of the stocks in its index with an individual weighting of more than 4.5% exceeds 48% of the index total. The rebalancing aims to reduce this weighting to a maximum of 40%. The final weightings have not yet been published, although…