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china yuanesCM

World economy 4th July 2023

China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI continues to expand in June at 50.5 from 50.9

Banca March : In China this morning, manufacturing business confidence falls less than expected. Caixin’s manufacturing PMI index, which is more biased towards smaller companies, came in at 50.5 in June from 50.9 previously, but above the 50 expected. With this figure, business confidence remains in line with the expansion of activity in the sector, a far cry from the weakness shown by these indicators in other major world economies.

mercosur

World politics 3rd July 2023

Mercosur and EU seek to close unratified free trade agreement reached in 2019

Banca March| The European Union and Mercosur – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay – reached a free trade agreement in 2019 but it has since not been ratified owing to unresolved differences between the parties. Now the Mercosur members, who are meeting in Argentina, want to close the agreement “once and for all”, although they also warn that it will not be at any price. On the European side, reticence…

Sintra BCE

World economy 29th June 2023

Lagarde, Powell, Bailey agree central banks are data dependent

Bankinter | After the monetary policy panel with Lagarde (ECB), Powell (Fed), Bailey (BoE) and Ueda (BoJ), the messages of the last meetings were maintained, as expected. Lagarde, Powell and Bailey recalled that central banks are data dependent, that they take decisions “meeting by meeting” and that their work is not yet finished. Lagarde referred to a hike in July as quite likely, but did not give any guidelines for…

No Picture

In the World 28th June 2023

US consumer confidence rebounds to highest level since January 2022

Banca March: Consumer confidence bounces back higher than expected in June, rising to 109.7 from 102.5 and above the 104 expected. With this acceleration in consumer confidence, the index reached its highest level since January 2022. This is positive given that both the current situation sub-index improved (155.3 vs. 148.9 previously) and the expectations component also improved (79.3 vs. 71.5 previously). Still in the US economy, we also had positive…

Li Quiang

In the World 28th June 2023

Li Qiang says China remains on track to achieve its growth target of around 5% by 2023

Link Securities| In his speech to the Summer Davos Forum, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said China is still on track to achieve its annual growth target of close to 5%, with 2Q2023 expected to grow faster than 1Q2023. The Chinese Premier acknowledged that China’s development still has imbalances and is inefficient, and that economic output per capita still remains low. He argued that companies, not governments, must decide how to…

alemania industria2

World economy 27th June 2023

Cycle continues to deteriorate: weaker than expected IFO survey in Germany, weak recovery in China, slowdown in US

Renta 4: European markets open flat (Eurostoxx futures +0.3%, S&P futures +0.2%). In the background, promises of new stimulus measures in China by Prime Minister Li Qiang that could accelerate its economy in 2Q23 after the weakness shown by the latest data, although without any specifics. On the macroeconomic front, we highlight yesterday’s worse-than-expected deterioration in Germany’s IFO survey, weighed down by a weaker-than-expected opening of the Chinese economy, the…

Fed marzo 2022 2

In the World 22nd June 2023

Fed focuses message on inflation control and banking sector stability, but without concrete proposals

Bankinter| In his appearance before Congress, Powell maintained the tone and vagueness of his message. Congress has focused most of its questions on banking regulation. Meanwhile, Powell focused his message on inflation control, but without specifying the future. Analysis team’s view: The Fed governor reinforced the stability of the banking sector. But, he did not specify the future of regulation. Powell expects to receive a proposal during the summer. However,…

bond vigilantes

World economy 22nd June 2023

Bausparkasse: First postponement of a bond issue this year. Curves expected for credit market

“It was a 10-year covered bond from a small German building society, Bausparkasse. Probably too local to be representative, but it is certainly not positive news,” explain Santander analysts, who foresee a sharp reduction in bond issues in the second half of the year, after a record first half. As of last Friday, 16 June, €534 billion had been issued. Santander’s full year projections point to total issuance of €895bn…

ACS Fachada

In the World 20th June 2023

ACS strengthens North American presence with €500-million extension of Ontario commuter line in Canada

Intermoney| ACS, through Dragados, in alliance with the Ledcor group, has won the initial works to extend services on the Ontario commuter line (Go Line). The contractors will work on the nearly 20-kilometre Lakeshore East line in the town of Bowmanville. The work includes seven new bridges and grade crossing improvements. Ontario has committed C$730 (about €500 million) to this rail extension. The investment in the Go Line amounts to…

mercados emergentes

World economy 19th June 2023

Moody’s HY default rate continues to rise (+0.2pp to 3.4% in May) and agency expects it to peak at 5% in 2Q24

Santander Corporate & Investment| Moody’s published on Thursday its monthly report where it announced that there were 16 defaults in May, matching the March figure which represented a monthly record since December 2020. This brings the balance for the first five months of the year to 62 defaults, with North America leading the way (42, more than double the 16 in the same period of 2022), followed by Europe (11),…