BancaMarch: China responds to the United States. As one of the world’s leading producers, China is imposing new export controls on drones and related equipment. Yesterday, the Chinese government announced new controls that will take effect from September.
Bankinter: Manufacturing PMI (July) 49.3 vs. 48.9 estimated and 49 previous. (ii) Non-Manufacturing PMI (July) 51.5 vs. 53.0 estimated and 53.2 previous. (iii) Composite PMI (July) 51.1 vs. 52.3 previous Assessment: Positive data. Especially because a recovery in the Manufacturing sector, the most affected can be seen. It is still in the contraction zone but it is close to the 50 level. The Services Sector, although it remains in the…
Bankinter | The Fed met expectations and raised its benchmark interest rate (Fed Funds) by +25 b.p. to 5.25%/5.50% on Wednesday, leaving the door open for more hikes. Assessment: The most relevant thing is that it leaves open the possibility of a new tightening in September by maintaining a data-dependent approach. The most relevant aspect of this meeting was Powell’s message. In the dot plot of the June meeting, the…
Alphavalue / Divacons | A loss of $5.5 trillion since April 2020 is raising risks to the US economy. A sharp drop in Americans’ personal savings threatens to affect consumer spending, which has so far helped the US economy withstand recession warnings. The data comes from a study released on Tuesday by data, economics and technology company Barchart, drawing on data from Bloomberg. Earlier, another report by Oxford Economics predicted…
Morgan Stanley: Analyst Mike Wilson points out that “disinflation” is set to become a headwind in the US. 2023 has been a year of high assessments with falling inflation and cost savings. However, many positive factors are reversing next year. Fiscal stimulus is largely going to disappear, the savings glut is ending and student loan repayments return in October for 27m Americans. Disinflation is now affecting sales and investors will…
Bankinter: The Nasdaq will start trading this Monday with the new adjustment of the weights of its components. The Nasdaq can perform a special rebalancing when the aggregate weighting of the stocks in its index with an individual weighting of more than 4.5% exceeds 48% of the index total. The rebalancing aims to reduce this weighting to a maximum of 40%. The final weightings have not yet been published, although…
BancaMarch: Japan’s government has raised its inflation forecast to 2.6% for 2023, well above the previous 1.7%. Considering that on Thursday of next week there is to be a meeting of the Central Bank of Japan, the market is closely watching the consequences that this announcement may have on the lax monetary policy that the Asian country has been defending. It should be recalled that, at the beginning of this…
Banca March: The latest UK inflation data has surprised on the downside as it has moderated more than expected. The UK economy’s CPI slowed its pace of growth in June, rising +7.9% year-on-year versus +8.7% the previous month. In addition, the underlying rate also showed positive signs as it moderated by two tenths to +6.9%, with services inflation also moderating by two tenths to +7.2%. These data surprised on the…
Banca March: G20 finance ministers and central bankers meet in India to discuss reforming multilateral arrangements between development banks and easing the debt burden on developing countries. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has held talks with her Indian counterpart Nirmala Sitharaman with the aim of strengthening relations with the Asian country.
China published its second-quarter GDP data on Monday with a big – but disappointing – number, 6.3% growth year on year. The reason for the disappointment comes from the hugely positive base effect, as last year’s second-quarter GDP growth was virtually because of the severe lockdowns happening in Shanghai and elsewhere in the country. The underwhelming growth in the second quarter is not all about the lack of external demand….