Renta 4| The rise of the S&P 500 is starting to show signs of excesses in the short term, such as the appearance of bearish divergences at high overbought levels or the excessive complacency readings in sentiment indicators. The proximity of a corrective leg in the coming weeks would not be surprising nor would it undermine the good momentum as long as the American benchmark remains above its main short-term…
Bankinter| According to data from the General Bureau of Customs, China’s trade surplus fell to $70.62 billion in June from $97.37 billion in the same period last year, a lower reading than the $74.8 billion expected by the analyst consensus, as exports fell more than imports, amid persistently weak global demand. Exports through customs fell by 12.4% year-on-year in June, a larger drop than the 9.5% expected by the consensus…
Banca March: More than 130 countries have extended by 18 months, until 2025, the controversial ban on taxing tech giants wherever they operate. Five countries, including Canada and Russia, oppose the extension. Plans to introduce national taxes on digital services were also agreed to be postponed for another 12 months. The aim is to allow more time to ratify the global tax agreement signed in 2021, which they have not…
Banca March| The Fed has proposed, in its role as supervisor of the US banking sector, to apply stricter controls on capital levels to a larger number of institutions. This role will include, according to the new plan, those financial institutions with assets of at least $100 billion. According to Michael S. Barr, vice-president for supervision, with this new threshold, a greater number of institutions will be subject to stricter…
Bankinter| Biotech led falls in the session after the FDA (regulatory agency) approved its Alzheimer’s drug, developed together with Eisai, the first to delay the progression of the disease. The problem came from unexpected testing requirements and side-effect warnings about the drug, which could limit its effective use.
BancaMarch: Official data for June came in below expectations and the previous months’ figures were revised downwards. However, despite these data, the reading of the employment figures remains positive and shows a high level of dynamism. Specifically, 209,000 new jobs were created in June compared with 306,000 in the previous month and below the 230,000 expected. It should be noted that job creation in the private sector weakened more than…
Aristóbulo de Juan (Former Head of Banking Supervision. Bank of Spain) | The current obsession of bank regulators worldwide is capital, reinforcing capital. For good reasons: capital is fundamental. But, under the surface, this appears to be a nominal rather than effective fixation, at least judging by the questionable quality of some of the components of minimum capital required by regulators in Europe and elsewhere. Moreover, paradoxically, the regulatory and…
The US Treasury Secretary began a visit to China yesterday that is likely to last until Sunday. The expectation is that these meetings will lead to an easing of tensions between the world’s two largest economies given that, in Janet Yellen’s own words: “A disengagement of the world’s two largest economies would be destabilising for the global economy”. Today she also met with Premier Li Qiang. On the other hand,…
Bankinter: The minutes of the Fed’s 13/14 June meeting show a broad consensus on the decision for a pause in rate hikes although a majority of directors (16 out of 18) believe that some additional rate hikes in the future from the current level of 5.00%-5.25% are appropriate. There is also a consensus that rates should remain in tightening territory until inflation reaches its 2% target. The minutes hardly change…
BancaMarch : The energy ministry of Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the OPEC+ cartel, announced that the one million barrels per day cut in July will be extended to August to support “the stability and balance of oil markets”. At the same time, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced a reduction in the country’s output by an additional 500,000 barrels per day in August. Both announcements are part…