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In the World 16th August 2023

US consumer spending withstands inflation and rate hikes: 71.2 points according to University of Michigan

Bankinter| University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (preliminary data for August) came out in line with expectations (71.2 points vs. 71.2 expected vs. 71.6 before). Assessment: This is good news because Consumption is resisting inflation and rate hikes (+300 bps in 12 months to 5.25/5.50%). The strength of the labour market, where the Unemployment Rate is close to 40-year lows, and the good momentum in Services (PMI at 52.3 vs. ISM…

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World economy 16th August 2023

Global crude oil demand hit a record 102 mb/d in June and could hit another in August

Link Securities | The EFE news agency reported that, in its monthly report on the world oil market, published on Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that global demand for crude oil reached a record 102 million barrels per day (mbd) in June. Last month demand fell slightly to 100.9 mbd. However, the IEA believes that another record could be seen in August. This higher demand is encouraged by…

Country Garden copia

In the World, Relevant News Item, World economy 14th August 2023

China’s largest developer, Country Garden, may have defaulted on two bond coupons over the weekend

Bankinter| China’s largest developer, Country Garden, may have defaulted on two bonds over the weekend. Its size is four times that of Evergrande. On the other hand, Chinese asset manager Zhongrong International may not have repaid capital and coupons on some of its real estate vehicles. Assessment: Bad news, which once again puts the Chinese real estate sector in check and is a consequence of the government’s scant measures to…

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In the World, Relevant News Item 14th August 2023

UK GDP rises +0.4% driven mainly by higher public spending

Bankinter: GDP (year-on-year) rises +0.4% vs +0.2% estimated and previous. Quarter-on-quarter +0.2% vs 0% estimated and +0.1% previous. Assessment: GDP growth surprises positively, although it is mainly driven by the higher contribution of Public Spending (+3.1% against – 1.8% previously). There is also a reactivation of Private Consumption (+0.7% against 0% estimated and previous), which is also reflected in Imports (+1.0% against -3.8% previous). Exports fall, but with less intensity…

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In the World, World politics 11th August 2023

US limits American investment in Chinese tech companies

BancaMarch| US President Joe Biden on Wednesday signed an executive order that effectively limits US investment in several Chinese tech firms. According to Biden, China’s strategy facilitates and supports “advances in sensitive technologies and products that are critical to the military, intelligence, surveillance or cyber capabilities of other countries”. The ban is limited to three key sectors of the Asian giant: semiconductors, quantum computing and artificial intelligence. At the same…

china yuanesCM

In the World, Relevant News Item 10th August 2023

China’s CPI and producer prices both show deflation

Bankinter: CPI (July):-0.3% year-on-year vs. -0.4% expected vs +0.0% previous. (ii) Industrial Prices: -4.4% year-on-year vs. -4.0% expected vs -5.4% previous. Assessment: Both CPI and industrial prices mark deflation. The CPI fell -0.3% year-on-year, the first negative reading since February 2021, while industrial prices fell for the tenth consecutive month. This is the first time since November 2020 that both indicators have been negative. After a positive post-pandemic start in…

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In the World, Relevant News Item 10th August 2023

US SME confidence improves: NFIB index rises to 91.9 in July

BancaMarch: US SME confidence improves. The NFIB index beat expectations and rose in July to 91.9 from the previous 91.9 and above the 91.3 expected. With this new advance, confidence was at an eight-month high, but still at very low levels and far from its historical average (98.1). Among the components, we highlight that 25% of the small companies surveyed indicate that they intend to raise their selling prices, the…

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In the World 4th August 2023

End of rate hikes in sight in UK

Ulrike Kastens (DWS) | The Bank of England raised interest rates yesterday by another 25 basis points to 5.25%, the highest level in 15 years. The key factors were labour market tightness and stronger wage growth, while developments in base rates and services prices are in line with the central bank’s expectations. Overall, the message of today’s press release is much more balanced than that of the previous meeting in…

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In the World 3rd August 2023

US oil inventories fall to 1982 lows

Norbolsa| Brent continues to rise this week to over $86/B, at the same time that US oil inventory data fell by 15.4 million barrels (1.37 million expected), according to sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures (official data due out today), marking the largest drop in crude inventories since 1982. Oil prices are expected to rise further in the coming months following Saudi Arabia’s reduction of 1m/b per day from July.