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In the World, World economy 12th August 2025

US imposes tariffs on imports of one-kilogram gold bars

Link Securities | The United States has imposed tariffs on imports of one-kilogram gold bars, a move that threatens to disrupt the global bullion market and deal a further blow to Switzerland, the world’s largest precious metals refining centre, according to Expansión. The Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency stated that one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars should be classified under a customs code subject to duties, according to a letter…

In the World 11th August 2025

Bank of England cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 4%, but maintains cautious approach

Bankinter | The Bank of England (BoE) cuts interest rates by 25 basis points to 4%, in line with expectations, but maintains a cautious approach. The process of lowering rates continues, accumulating -125 basis points since it began at the August 2024 meeting. The decision was not unanimous and was very close, requiring a second vote for the first time in its history. In the first vote, four members of…

In the World, World economy 8th August 2025

China’s July trade balance shows larger-than-expected slowdown in surplus

Link Securities | Dollar-denominated exports rose 7.2% year-on-year in China in July, beating the Reuters consensus of 5.4% and following 5.8% growth in June. Bloomberg highlighted that the resilience of Chinese exports came despite US tariffs, indicating strong global demand and exports remaining a key factor in the economy. Imports rose 4.1% year-on-year in July, contrasting with the expected 1.0% decline and accelerating growth from 1.1% in June. Imports, growing…

In the World, World politics 7th August 2025

Trump announces additional 25% tariffs on India for importing oil from Russ

Bankinter | Trump announces additional 25% tariffs on India for importing oil from Russia. These are in addition to the 25% announced last week, bringing the final tax to 50%. Bankinter analysis team’s view: The US president has followed through on his threats and raised tariffs on Indian imports to 50% as a sanction for buying oil from Russia. The Indian government considers the measure ‘unfair and unreasonable’, arguing that…

In the World 5th August 2025

US economy adds 73,000 non-farm jobs in July, well below 115,000 expected

Link Securities | According to data from the Department of Labor, the US economy added 73,000 non-farm jobs in July. The figure is well below the 115,000 jobs expected by the consensus of FactSet analysts. In addition, June’s job creation figure was sharply revised downward from an initial 147,000 jobs to just 14,000 jobs, and May’s figure was also revised downward by 125,000 jobs. Taken together, the May and June…

In the World, World economy 5th August 2025

OPEC+ agrees to increase production by 547,000 b/d in September and ends restoration of 2.2 Mb/d withdrawn from market in 2023

Bankinter | OPEC+ agreed to increase production in September by 547,000 b/d. This is the sixth consecutive monthly increase. With this move, it completes the restoration of 2.2 Mbd that it withdrew from the market in 2023. OPEC justifies its decision on the basis of the stability of the global economic outlook and the solid fundamentals of the market (low inventory levels). As a reference, OPEC+ (which includes other countries…

In the World, World economy 4th August 2025

China’s manufacturing PMI returns to contraction territory, falling to 49.5 points in July

Bankinter | The Caixin manufacturing PMI returns to economic contraction territory (<50 points) after falling to 49.5 points in July (versus 50.4 expected and 50.4 previously). Bankinter analysis team view: The decline in activity reflects the loss of momentum in global trade due to the trade war and weak domestic demand in China. The manufacturing PMI has been in expansionary territory continuously from October 2024 to April 2025, but everything…

In the World 1st August 2025

Fed meets expectations, keeps rates at 4.25%/4.50% in first meeting since 1993 with two dissenting votes

Bankinter | The Fed meets expectations and keeps benchmark interest rates (Fed Funds) at 4.25%/4.50%. The decision was not unanimous, as two governors (Waller and Bowman) voted in favour of cutting rates by 25 basis points. A third governor was absent and did not vote (Kugler). This is the first meeting since 1993 with two dissenting votes. Bankinter analysis team’s view: The decision to keep rates unchanged makes sense in…

In the World, World economy 31st July 2025

IMF raises global growth forecast two tenths to 3% for 2025 and one tenth to 3.1% for 2026

Bankinter | Yesterday, the IMF revised its global GDP growth forecasts upwards for both 2025 to 3.0% year-on-year (from 2.8% in its April 2025 projection) and for 2026 to 3.1% (from 3.0% previously). By country, it made a general improvement in its forecasts for 2025 as tariff uncertainty cleared somewhat (US 1.9% versus 1.8% previously; EMU 1.0% versus 0.8% previously and Japan 0.7% versus 0.6% previously). The revision for China…

In the World, World economy 31st July 2025

US-China Trade talks conclude with no explicit decision

Link Securities | Trade negotiations between the US and China concluded on Tuesday, with negotiators suggesting that the meeting was productive but without making any major announcements. No explicit decision was taken, nor was a 90-day extension of the deadline for imposing tariffs agreed, which in China’s case is 12 August. In this regard, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that it is an option but that President Trump will make…

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