UBS | We believe China and Japan will play significant roles as regional economic patrons over the next few years. We estimate the amount of patro – dollars, namely China’s outward direct investment in the ‘One Belt One Road’ regions, will exceed US$200bn in 2016 – 18.
In December 1985, Thomas Sargent spent some time in Brazil, giving speeches and talking to policymakers. Back home in January 1986, he published in the WSJ an Open Letter to the Brazilian Finance Minister: …When you have exhausted all of your opportunities to borrow, you will have to make one or more of unpleasant adjustments such as taxes rises, government expenditures cuts or default on some of you debt…
Yue Yue and Zhang Yuzhe via Caixin | Chinese investors have warmly welcomed a surge in corporate bond issues as attractive alternatives to the nation’s stock markets, where values have plunged in recent months.
Based on our latest in-house banking survey, sentiment towards the banking sector has deteriorated further over the past quarter. The decline in expectations on the banking outlook reflected rising global growth concerns, uncertainty over Fed funds rates, as well as volatility in commodity prices and currencies.
BEIJING | Alberto Lebrón | When the Asian crisis began in 1997, there were some countries which thought they were unjustly treated. For example, South Korea. Today, nearly twenty years on, the same pattern is being repeated, although the principal actors involved are much better prepared than they were then. But, are the Asian countries ready to face a restrictive monetary cyle imposed by the U.S.?
The international consultative Group of Thirty (G30), whose members are central bankers and bankers from big private banks, has just released a report. They conclude much work remains ahead for governments and central banks to secure a solid recovery.
On face value, the ruthless tools used by central bankers to inject piles of money into the economy point to a brand new way of conducting monetary policy. Never before, except for in wartime, did they dare to trigger such massive asset-buying programmes. And never before did they so blatantly disregard the future risks a huge liquidity glut might fuel.
HowMuch.net | The countries with the highest debt-to-GDP ratios are Japan (230%), Greece (177%), Lebanon (134%), Jamaica (133%), Italy (132%), and Portugal (130%). This isn’t necessarily a huge problem. As long as countries are using borrowed funds to successfully stimulate their economies, they will be able to pay back their debts on time.
The international organisation maintained its forecasts for Spanish GDP growth (3.1% in 2015) but cut its global growth estimate to 3.1%, the worst performance since the start of the financial crisis six years ago.
UBS | In September PM Abe fired off three new arrows: a strong economy, parenting support, and social security, setting a nominal GDP target of ¥600trn as the first of these. A nominal growth rate of 3% would achieve the ¥600trn target in FY21.