A Good Acronym for Emerging Markets Needs a V
Alberto Forchielli via Caixin| The BRICS, MINT and others are nice, but CIVET is better because it has Vietnam, the happy exception to recent slowdowns.
World economy
Offset here, offset there, offset everywhere
James Alexander via Historinhas | There is only monetary policy, defined as the value of money relative to real goods and services. All else is just tools: official short term policy rates, IOER, targeting or guidance, QE, fiscal policy. In the “monetary offset”, the tool of expansionary fiscal policy is offset if the overarching policy tool is inflation targeting.
Fed Debates and the EMU Technocratic Illusion
PARIS | Francesco Saraceno | What I’d like to express here is my jealousy for the discussions (and the confrontation) that we observe in the US about rate rises. These discussions are a sideproduct, a very positive one if you ask me, of the institutional design of the Fed.
Trade and Investment Pact is Good News for Europe
JOHN BRUTON | An agreement between the US and European Union would have benefits for both sides of the Atlantic. For example, it would open the US Federal, State and local governments market to European tenders, who are now discriminated against by “buy America” rules, which deliver poor value to US taxpayers.
Patronomics: more than Chinese railways
UBS | We believe China and Japan will play significant roles as regional economic patrons over the next few years. We estimate the amount of patro – dollars, namely China’s outward direct investment in the ‘One Belt One Road’ regions, will exceed US$200bn in 2016 – 18.
Brazil seems eager to relive the ‘good ole days’
In December 1985, Thomas Sargent spent some time in Brazil, giving speeches and talking to policymakers. Back home in January 1986, he published in the WSJ an Open Letter to the Brazilian Finance Minister: …When you have exhausted all of your opportunities to borrow, you will have to make one or more of unpleasant adjustments such as taxes rises, government expenditures cuts or default on some of you debt…
Will Investors Get Burned in China’s Bond Market Fire?
Yue Yue and Zhang Yuzhe via Caixin | Chinese investors have warmly welcomed a surge in corporate bond issues as attractive alternatives to the nation’s stock markets, where values have plunged in recent months.
EPS estimates for global banks in 2015 cut by 3.4% over past year
Based on our latest in-house banking survey, sentiment towards the banking sector has deteriorated further over the past quarter. The decline in expectations on the banking outlook reflected rising global growth concerns, uncertainty over Fed funds rates, as well as volatility in commodity prices and currencies.
U.S and China put emerging markets to the test
BEIJING | Alberto Lebrón | When the Asian crisis began in 1997, there were some countries which thought they were unjustly treated. For example, South Korea. Today, nearly twenty years on, the same pattern is being repeated, although the principal actors involved are much better prepared than they were then. But, are the Asian countries ready to face a restrictive monetary cyle imposed by the U.S.?
Look Who’s Leading The ‘Group Of 30’
The international consultative Group of Thirty (G30), whose members are central bankers and bankers from big private banks, has just released a report. They conclude much work remains ahead for governments and central banks to secure a solid recovery.