Crédito y Caución (Atradius) | The global economy is facing an unprecedented mix of challenges which are bringing it to the brink of recession in 2023. Stubborn inflation is the most dire challenge, which has far-reaching knock-on effects across the entire economy. We now find ourselves in a much-feared ‘stagflation’ reality – one characterised by low GDP but high price growth. Central banks have undertaken an aggressive tightening path to…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | The US dollar has officially ruled the international monetary system since the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1944. No other currency has been able to challenge the dollar notwithstanding the ups and down of the US economy both in terms of growth but also inflation. Notwithstanding its overall dominance, things are changing. This is particularly true for the waning share of the US dollar in the…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Uncertainty about China’s growth prospects next year is unprecedently high. Most importantly such uncertainty hinges more than ever on a single issue: the speed – and smoothness – of China’s opening-up from zero-Covid policies after three years of intermittent lockdowns. The speed of opening-up is key because mobility is closely correlated with China’s consumption and economic activity, more generally. In fact, we have estimated that, in…
Renta 4|Acciona Energía has announced the expansion of the MacIntyre wind energy complex which is currently under construction in Queensland, Australia. It will reach a total installed capacity of 2000 MW. The MacIntyre complex is divided into two wind farms, where Acciona Energia owns 70% of 923 MW, while 103 MW belong to Queensland state-owned company CleanCo. Valuation: Positive news. This is the most important project to date of all…
Steve Caruthers & Steven Sperry (Capital Group) | There’s no denying that the relentless rise of the U.S. dollar has been challenging for investors in non-U.S. equities. The currency translation effect (that is, losses and gains resulting from the conversion of non-U.S. investment returns into U.S. dollars) has dented global equity portfolio results. There are two ways currency movements can affect investors. In addition to translation effects at the portfolio…
Luis Alcaide | Little has emerged from the face-to-face meeting between Xi Jinping and Pedro Sánchez during the G7 meeting in Bali. Only the Spanish Prime Minister’s request to his Chinese counterpart to exercise his best offices with Vladimir Putin to stop his invasion and destruction of Ukraine. Nothing has come to light about the bilateral relations between Spain and China, despite the fact that China is the leading international…
Nicholas Yeo (abrdn) | The world’s biggest annual shopping event is not America’s Black Friday, it’s China’s ‘Singles Day’, held on 11.11, as the date symbolises both those who are single and those who have newly formed a couple. Across the country, people treat themselves and each other to presents, parties and shopping splurges. The unstoppable rise of the Chinese consumer means the celebration has become the world’s largest online…
Crédito y Caución has lowered its growth forecasts for world merchandise trade in volume to 1.5% for 2023, compared to 4% that reflected its previous estimate. The downward revision occurs as a result of the sharp cut, to 1.7%, of the world GDP growth forecasts for 2023. A few weeks ago, the World Trade Organization already announced that it expects that the growth of world trade capped at 1% in…
Alicia García Herrero * (Natixis) | It is hard to imagine a more momentous meeting than the one Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping just held on the sidelines of the Group of Twenty meeting in Bali. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s absence certainly made things easier, as it opened the door for the G20 communiqué to address the Ukraine war, but it is not going to go beyond a compromise…
Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) *| China’s grand infrastructure development strategy, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has suffered as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, at least when measured by the amount of funds lent or invested by China in BRI projects. This decrease in funding is one of the most visible signs of China’s increasing isolationism and worsening global image. President Xi announced China’s most important soft-power strategy on…