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World economy 7th May 2025

US non-farm job creation in April beats expectations, but previous record revised downward

Bankinter | Non-Farm Job Creation (April) beats expectations, but revises downward from previous record: 177K against 138K expected and 185K previous. Unemployment Rate repeats at 4.2% as expected and Average Wages/Hour remain at 3.8% year-on-year versus 3.9% year-on-year expected. Bankinter’s analysis team’s view: The data as a whole is consistent and, therefore, positive in the current context in which the US economy finds itself. The labour market continues to show…

World economy 5th May 2025

OPEC agrees to increase production in June by 411,000bd despite lower demand estimates

Bankinter | OPEC agrees to increase production in June by 411,000bd. As a reference, in April OPEC increased its production by 138,000bd and 411,000bd in May. Therefore, it introduces this amount for the second consecutive month. OPEC has the objective of bringing 2.2Mbd to market and, if this increase is maintained, it would achieve its objective in September this year, compared to July 2026, as predicted in April. As a…

World economy 16th April 2025

OPEC cuts global oil demand estimate and now forecasts growth of 1.3 Mbd in 2025 and 1.28 in 2026

Bankinter | OPEC cut its estimate for global oil demand. It justified its decision on the impact on the economy of tariffs and the information received in Q1. They estimate that demand will increase by 1.3 mbd in 2025 and 1.28 mbd in 2026, in both cases a reduction of 0.150 mbd compared to the previous estimate. This increase represents about 1.2% of global supply each year. In parallel, it…

World economy 14th April 2025

Trump’s tariffs provoke provision of China’s trading partners and raise trade surplus in March

Bankinter| The Trade Balance shows an increase in the surplus in March to $102.64 billion from $31.72 billion previously and $75.15 billion estimated. This evolution is due to the acceleration of Exports (up 12.4% from -3.0% previously and +4.6% estimated) and the contraction of Imports (down 4.3% from +1.5% previously and -2.1% previously). Analysis team opinion: More solid data than estimated. However, it is a one-off improvement. Uncertainty over the…

World economy 11th April 2025

China already feeling pressure of trade war on CPI – falls 0.1% year-on-year in March

Link Securities | According to official data, China’s consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year in March, falling below the consensus expectation of a 0.1% increase and marking the second consecutive month of decline, as the trade war with the US threatens to put further downward pressure on prices. However, the latest fall was significantly more moderate than the 0.7% in February, supported by a smaller fall in food…

World economy 2nd April 2025

EU prioritises diplomacy with US, but ready to retaliate with ‘firm’ plan

BancaMarch | Ursula Von der Leyen affirmed that the community as a whole has the power to fight back, with all possible tools on the table. The President of the Commission assured that the bloc is prepared to restrict imports of services of US origin if Trump today makes good on his threat to impose reciprocal tariffs. The EU has the capacity to control trade in services, due to its…

World economy 1st April 2025

Chinese Composite PMI remains in economic expansion zone after rising to 51.4 points in March

Bankinter | The Composite PMI remains in the economic expansion zone after rising to 51.4 points in March (versus 51.1 previously). The Manufacturing PMI rises to 50.5 points (versus 50.4 expected against 50.2 previously) with the Services PMI at 50.8 (versus 50.6 expected against 50.4 previously). Bankinter analysis team”s view: This is good news, but with limited impact. The figures do not yet reflect the impact of the new tariffs…

World economy 19th March 2025

OECD revises global growth estimates downwards and inflation estimates upwards for 2025 and 2026

Bankinter | The estimate of global growth for 2025 now stands at +3.1% from 3.3% previously and for 2026 at +3% from +3.3% previously. Canada and Mexico are the economies most negatively affected due to the impact of growing tariff tensions. In the United States, growth is now expected to be +2.2% by 2025 (+2.4% previously) and +1.6% by 2026 (2.1% previously). For Spain, the forecast has been revised upwards…

World economy 15th March 2025

Ferrovial increases stake in ETR to 48% after buying 5% for €1.34 billion

Intermoney | Ferrovial (FER) (Hold, PO €39) announced on Thursday an agreement with AtkinsRéalis, a Canadian engineering firm formerly known as SNC Lavalin Group, for the sale and purchase of 5.06% of the capital of the ETR407 motorway, for the sum of C$2.09 billion, or approximately €1.34 billion. Ferrovial thus increases its stake in ETR to 48.3%. Ferrovial will acquire 3.3% at the closing of the agreement, while the remaining…

World economy 13th March 2025

Telefónica sells Colombian subsidiary to Millicom for $400 million

Telefónica has agreed with Millicom to sell all the shares it holds in Colombia Telecomunicaciones, representing 67.5% of its share capital, for approximately $400 million, as reported by the company to the CNMV. This represents an equity value of more than seven times EBITDA and the deconsolidation of debt of nearly €1.2 billion. “This operation is part of the asset portfolio management policy of the Telefónica Group and is aligned…

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