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World economy, World politics 12th April 2023

Will Lula find his El Dorado in China?

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is currently in Beijing with a huge official and business delegation. His goals are clear: first and foremost, bringing growth opportunities to Brazil, whose economy has been battered by the Covid pandemic. Brazilian exports of commodities into China have ballooned since Beijing’s fiscal binge in 2008 that led to pent-up demand for commodities. More recently, Brazil’s large lithium reserves,…

World economy, World politics 11th April 2023

Li Keqiang’s last Two Sessions

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | China’s so-called Two Sessions, the country’s most important annual political gathering, marked a transition this year. Held in early March, it included the final work report – or summary of government business – delivered by outgoing Prime Minister, Li Keqiang, who after two five-year terms as China’s prime minister, handed over to Li Qiang. Against this backdrop, Li Keqiang’s 2023 work report was blissfully short,…

World economy, World politics 6th March 2023

China’s 2023 Government Work Report: Safe growth target contrasts with bold employment objective

Alicia García Herrero (Natixis) | Against the backdrop of the recent reopening after three years of zero-Covid policies, the Chinese government, in the last government report of Prime Minister Li Keqiang during the Two Sessions, has set a GDP growth target of around 5% in 2023. Such a target is lower than our growth forecast of 5.5% for 2023, and lower than last year’s government target (5.5%). This is somewhat…

World economy, World politics 13th February 2023

Russia may be using oil as weapon in economic war: production to be cut by some 500,000 bpd

Link Securities | The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Friday that Russia’s government had that day announced that it plans to cut its oil production by about 500,000 barrels per day, or about 5 percent, starting next month, in a move it said was in response to Western sanctions. The newspaper notes that Friday’s move is the first in which Russia telegraphed a specific response to oil markets to…

World economy, World politics 16th January 2023

29 sustainability taxonomies in development worldwide

F. Rodríguez| According to the conservation organisation World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the think tank Climate & Company, the European taxonomy is one of 29 being developed around the world, 14 of them, including that of the EU, within the group of G20 countries: Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey and the United Kingdom. Its report last year, When finance…

2018 Brazil elections are taking place in a particularly challenging environment

World economy, World politics 9th January 2023

Santander, Telefónica, Iberdrola, Aena and Mapfre, Spanish companies most exposed to institutional instability in Brazil

Alphavalue /Divacons | The current political instability in Brazil could harm Spanish companies with an interest in the country. The police have regained control of Congress, the presidential palace, and the Supreme Court after the violent invasion carried out by supporters of Jair Bolsonaro. However, and despite the fact that Bolsonaro has distanced himself from the actions of the protestors, the political tension continues. Among the Spanish companies most exposed…

World economy, World politics 7th January 2023

Jobs and growth data won’t deter the Fed’s resolve

J.P. Marín-Arrese | Last Friday, Wall Street jumped on employment and services data. Jobs openings, while better than expected, signalled a downward path. The service sector contracted for the first time till 2020. The ensuing bullish reaction shows the markets bet the Fed might undertake a U-turn earlier than pointed out in the last FOMC minutes. Investors seem to outwit the Fed, disregarding its determination to keep rates tight enough…

World politics 6th January 2023

The US Congress gridlock

J.P. Marín-Arrese | Kevin McCarthy’s failed attempts to snatch election as Congress Speaker not only signals a severe divide within the Republican party. It may also hamper the ability to run the country. Rebels aim to block the White House agenda, even launch an impeachment against Biden, and seem ready to put the US Government in default by refusing to increase the debt ceiling next October. They will likely question…

World economy, World politics 16th November 2022

Biden, Xi focus on Taiwan and forget about Ukraine

Alicia García Herrero * (Natixis) | It is hard to imagine a more momentous meeting than the one Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping just held on the sidelines of the Group of Twenty meeting in Bali. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s absence certainly made things easier, as it opened the door for the G20 communiqué to address the Ukraine war, but it is not going to go beyond a compromise…

World economy, World politics 10th November 2022

USA: no Democratic landslide

Fernando González Urbaneja | We are learning in these uncertain times that it is all bulls up to the tail, that the electoral results are those that are certified by the bodies in charge of controlling the votes. And that often takes time. In Brazil, the electronic system made it possible to verify Lula’s victory on election night itself, albeit by a very small margin, but enough to avoid any…

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